How to bet the early Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday

Breeders' Cup saddle cloths at Churchill Downs (c) Rickelle Nelson/Horsephotos.com

by Scott Shapiro

If you are a Pick 4 player, the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is a wonderful two-day experience and, with three opportunities each on both Friday and Saturday, there are plenty of chances to get involved.

One of the Pick 4s that I like most is the early Pick 4 which begins with the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) on Saturday. Here are my thoughts on the four events:

RACE 4: Turf Sprint

This is one of the most challenging races of the weekend to handicap so I advise using several, including my top choice World of Trouble (#11) (6-1). The son of Kantharos was on the Kentucky Derby Trail for a bit this winter, but got back to sprinting in his last three tries, including two wins over the sod in New York. His wire-to-wire score in Belmont Park’s Allied Forces Stakes going six furlongs on good turf stamps him as a major player and my top choice in this year’s Turf Sprint.

My favorite value option in this race is Chanteline (#8) (15-1). The Ten Broeck Farm mare makes her second start of the form cycle on Saturday after a three-quarter length win in the Franklin County Stakes (G3) at Keeneland on October 12. The daughter of Majesticperfection has won four of seven in 2018 and illustrated she can perform over a soft turf at Saratoga this summer when she ran second in the Caress Stakes.

RACE 5: Dirt Mile

The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) has produced prices the last couple of years with Tamarkuz and Battle of Midway, but it looks like a race that one of the two favorites is likely to capture in 2018.

Catalina Cruiser (#10) (8-5) enters the Dirt Mile unbeaten in four career starts for trainer John Sadler, but has never won away from his Southern California home and has not raced since a 7 1/4-length romp in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) in late August. The son of Union Rags has had trouble staying on the racetrack, but when he has raced he has been extremely impressive. There is definitely a chance that he clears from his outside draw and takes this group wire-to-wire, but he is too short of a price for me to get excited about.

City of Light (#1) (5-2) is the clear second choice in this one and my top choice. The son of Quality Road is more battle tested than Catalina Cruiser, has won outside of Southern California and should thrive over this configuration. Jockey Javier Castellano will have to navigate a clean trip though from the rail draw if he wants to get the best of the 8-5 morning-line chalk.

The only price horse worth inclusion as a potential separator is Giant Expectations (#9) (15-1). The New York-bred was in over his head in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) and Santa Anita Handicap (G1) this winter, but got some much-needed time off before returning to the races in the Ack Ack Stakes (G3) in late September at Churchill Downs. In that first start off the bench, the son of Frost Giant got off to a tardy start and had little chance given the slow early pace, but should move forward considerably after shaking off the rust. If he can get back to his form late last year he has an outside shot to get to the wire first.