How to bet the exotics in the 2019 Prioress Stakes

On paper, Saturday’s $250,000 Prioress Stakes (G2) at Saratoga is shaping up to be a race between two just competitors—#3 Break Even and the clock.

That’s how dominant Break Even appears to be in this six-furlong sprint for three-year-old fillies. Trained by Brad Cox, the daughter of Country Day has gone undefeated in six starts, repeatedly using her blazing speed to sprint her rivals off their feet. With four stakes victories under her belt, including the Eight Belle Stakes (G2) on dirt and the Coronation Cup on turf, Break Even is versatile, accomplished, and—obviously—very fast.

In terms of Beyer speed figures, Break Even towers over her five Prioress rivals. In her last four starts, she’s posted figures between 94 and 99. In contrast, none of her challengers have cracked the 90 barrier. And while Break Even might face some moderate pace pressure in the Prioress, it’s unlikely she’ll be outrun in the race for the early lead. In her last two starts, Break Even has thrown down Brisnet E1 pace ratings of 101 and 109, followed by E2 pace ratings of 109 and 110. None of her rivals have posted similar figures, suggesting Break Even will control the pace on Saturday.

Following Break Even’s comfortable triumph on the Coronation Cup—in which she posted fractions of :21.03 and :43.50 before holding off the deep-closing next-out stakes winner Eyeinthesky by a length—Cox could have wheeled her back three weeks later for the seven-furlong Test Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. But as tempting as that Grade 1 prize might have been, Cox took a more conservative approach, giving Break Even more time to recover from her strenuous effort. With seven weeks between starts, Break Even should be ready to deliver another powerful front-running performance.

Since Break Even will be a heavy favorite in the wagering, I’ll try to boost the payoff by keying her on top in the trifecta and superfecta. Assuming Break Even’s speed will fry her potential pace rivals #4 Break Curfew and #6 Kept True, I’ll eliminate them from my plays, leaving me with three fillies to use underneath the favorite.

Among the three, Chad Brown’s #5 Royal Charlotte will be the shortest price based off her triumph in the Victory Ride Stakes (G3) at Belmont two starts back. But Royal Charlotte never fired in the Test Stakes, finishing sixth by twenty lengths, and I believe #1 South of France or #2 Risky Mandate could edge her out for the runner-up spot. Risky Mandate has beaten older mares by daylight in her first two starts, making her a particularly exciting prospect, while South of France—a stakes-winning juvenile—recently returned from a layoff to finish second in a Saratoga allowance race behind the Grade 1-placed four-year-old Talk Veuve to Me.

$6 trifecta: 3 with 2 with 1,5 ($12) $5 trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 2 ($10) $2 superfecta: 3 with 2 with 1,5 with 1,5 ($4) $2 superfecta: 3 with 1,5 with 2 with 1,5 ($4)

Good luck!