How to bet the Honeymoon Stakes

Sophomore fillies with an affinity for grass will get a chance to shine in Saturday’s $200,000 Honeymoon (G3) at Santa Anita, a 1 1/8-mile turf test with nine entries.

The first question facing handicappers is a matter of pace — how far can #8 Parkour carry her speed?

The daughter of Carpe Diem used bold, frontrunning tactics to win a 1-mile allowance March 22 at Santa Anita. She opened up a clear lead, through fractions of :22.12, :45.20, and 1:09.67, before she cruised home on top by 3 1/4 lengths. Jockey Mike Smith retains the mount and figures to employ an identical strategy Saturday, but can Parkour ration her speed over another furlong, with a step up in class?

This brings us to question two — who might challenge Parkour on the front end? On paper, the only logical candidate is #5 Laura’s Light, who beat Parkour decisively in the 1-mile Blue Norther S. at Santa Anita in December.

Whereas Parkour unsuccessfully attempted rating tactics in the Blue Norther, Laura’s Light led all the way to score by 3 1/4 lengths. She came right back to win the Sweet Life (G3). Laura’s Light might not have quite as much pure speed as Parkour, but she can definitely keep the pacesetter occupied if jockey Abel Cedillo so chooses.

This triggers a third question — which filly stands to benefit if the pace of the Honeymoon becomes destructive? There are several candidates, but I’ll favor the chances of #9 Stela Star, an Irish-bred filly who will make her second start in North America for trainer John Sadler.

Stela Star was a classy filly in her native country, where she won the 7-furlong Killavullan (G3) during a productive juvenile campaign, and she also made a nice impression in her stateside debut. Despite a slow break in the 1-mile China Doll S. at Santa Anita, Stela Star rallied strongly from behind modest fractions to finish second by a half-length against three-time stakes winner Warren’s Showtime.

For the Honeymoon, Stela Star will pick up the services of jockey Flavien Prat, far and away Santa Anita’s most successful jockey on turf in recent years. With the right trip, Stela Star can come running late to secure her first North American victory.

Let’s bet Stela Star to win and key her on top of Parkour and Laura’s Light in the exacta.

$20 to win on #9 Stela Star
$5 exacta: 9 with 5,8 ($10)
Total: $30

Good luck!