How to bet the Louisville Stakes at Churchill Downs

There are a handful of veteran campaigners worth considering in Saturday’s $100,000 Louisville (G3) over the Churchill Downs turf course, if only because they’ve shown an affinity for the testing, 1 1/2-mile distance.

For starters, there’s #5 Arklow. He doesn’t win often, but he has held his own against tough competition for better than three years, most notably when he battled to a tenacious victory in the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park last fall.

Then there’s #6 Tiz the Slam, and while he has never won a Grade 1, the speedy son of Tiznow claimed the 2019 Louisville to kick off a win streak that saw him dominate a trio of 1 1/2-mile graded stakes races in gate-to-wire fashion.

But Arklow and Tiz the Slam are getting up there in age (they’re both 6 years old) and they’re returning from layoffs following sub-par performances. That’s not to say they can’t win Saturday. Tiz the Slam has been training up a storm, and Arklow’s trainer Brad Cox strikes at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs. But I’m not keen to trust them at short prices.

An intriguing alternative to the favorites is #8 Jais’s Solitude. In his lone start at 1 1/2 miles, Jais’s Solitude unleashed a strong rally to cross the wire first in the Bald Eagle Derby at Laurel Park. While the son of Afleet Alex was subsequently disqualified for interference in the homestretch, that doesn’t change the fact that Jais’s Solitude demonstrated a powerful finishing kick over the marathon trip. He sprinted the final quarter-mile in approximately :23 2/5.

Jais’s Solitude has struggled with poor pace setups in shorter races, so he figures to offer solid odds. Veteran Churchill jockey Corey Lanerie picks up the mount for trainer Eddie Kenneally, who went 12-for-45 (27%) with turf horses at Churchill between 2017 and 2019.

Let’s place a small win bet on Jais’s Solitude, then key him in the exacta, with Arklow and Tiz the Law.

$8 to win on #8 Jais’s Solitude
$4 exacta: 5,6 with 8 ($8)
$2 exacta: 8 with 5,6 ($4)
Total: $20

Good luck!