How to bet the Raven Run Stakes

Alter Moon captures the Azalea Stakes at Gulfstream Park (c) Adam Coglianese Photography

An overflow field of 16 will go postward in the Saturday feature at Keeneland, the $250,000 Raven Run Stakes (G2). Sophomore fillies will travel seven-eighths on the dirt in what appears to be a fine wagering opportunity.

ALTER MOON (#5) (7-2) ran into the formidable Separationofpowers when a solid fourth in the Test Stakes (G1) most recently at Saratoga and gets the nod from this corner.

The Kentucky-bred daughter of Alternation has transformed into a fine filly since removing the blinkers four back. The bay miss owns ample early speed to get position early and I like that she put in a half-mile breeze in :49.40 on October 13 over the Keeneland course in preparation of this one. I expect Alter Moon to be placed just off the tempo to the top of the lane before taking command inside the final furlong beneath Jose Ortiz.

The most intriguing filly in the field might be BLAMED (#3) (15-1). The Maryland-bred makes a first run for new conditioner Bill Mott and she could be the real deal. The Blame filly is unraced since the spring but was dominant at Sunland, reeling off a trio of easy stakes wins in succession. The talented sophomore owns five wins in a row overall and gets a true class test in the Raven Run. I think she will be up to the task under Julien Leparoux.

SHAMROCK ROSE (#12) (15-1) is a three-time synthetic stakes queen hoping to make the grade on dirt in this spot. The Mark Casse trainee has fine form with a pair of facile wins of late and I love her versatility. The First Dude filly has been up front in her last two but is proven capable of rallying from off the tempo, as well. In a field with many forwardly placed fillies, Tyler Gaffalione will have Shamrock Rose off the pace and trying to run them down late on the cut back in distance.

ANALYSIS

The pace should be very solid in the Raven Run. Amy’s Challenge (#1) (8-1) from the rail will have to send and looks swiftest early on, but there will be numerous contenders within a few lengths from the start.

WAGER

$20 Win #5 ALTER MOON = $20

$1 Trifecta 5 with 3, 12 with all = $24

$1 Trifecta 5 with 3, 12 with all = $24

$1 Trifecta 3, 12 with 5 with all = $24