How to Bet the Raven Run Stakes
© Hodges Photography / Amanda Hodges Weir
October 18th, 2019
A field of 11 sophomore fillies will travel seven panels on the dirt at Keeneland in Saturday’s $250,000 Raven Run S. (G2). The well-matched field boasts numerous contenders, including one that I like at a huge price.
Raven Run Stakes Analysis
Debut winner #3 Indian Pride (7-2) led throughout on debut and looks like the one to catch from her post position. #1 Royal Charlotte (3-1), #5 Free Cover (30-1), #8 First Star (6-1) and #9 Horologist (5-1) will be tracking from the next flight.
#2 Bell’s The One (12-1), #6 Restless Rider (4-1) and #10 Needs Supervision (30-1) will be gearing up from off the pace on Saturday.
Wagers for the Raven Run Stakes
- $1 Trifecta 3,9,10 with 1,3,6,8,9,10 with 1,3,6,8,9,10 = $60
Raven Run Stakes Contenders (in post order):
ROYAL CHARLOTTE (3-1) – Once-beaten filly from the Chad Brown rebounded from her initial setback with a score in the Prioress (G2) at Saratoga most recently. Classy Cairo Prince filly was an allowance winner at Keeneland in the spring and draws well on the rail for this affair. Obvious contender will have Tyler Gaffalione in the silks.
BELL’S THE ONE (12-1) – Dogwood runner-up impressed with an allowance win on the course last fall and rates an off-the-pace contender in this spot. Neil Pessin charge is winless in her last four outings however, and she will need a lifetime best to challenge for the top prize late.
INDIAN PRIDE (7-2) – Wildcard in the cast was superb in a debut score at The Spa and rates as the controlling speed in her stakes bow. Proud Citizen homebred has posted a pair of strong half-mile moves locally in advance of her local debut. Kentucky-bred might forget to stop if she breaks well with John Velazquez in the stirrups.
OXY LADY (30-1) – Oxbow filly was sharp in a runaway tally in the Tempted (G3) last season, but she has only finished in the top-three one one-of-four occasions since. Jack Sisterson trainee would be a surprise off the layoff.
FREE COVER (30-1) – Interesting sort from the Bret Calhoun barn has steadily improved this season and could sit a good trip third time off the layoff. Congrats filly was third in the Dogwood last out, and improvement off of that will give her an exotics chance in a tough field. Gabe Saez has the call.
RESTLESS RIDER (4-1) – Grade 1 heroine has registered a pair of big runs on this course from as many tries. Distorted Humor filly makes her first appearance since May, but she has trained well and has an obvious affinity for the Keeneland surface. Kenny McPeek pupil has the class to take this field down if ready off the bench.
ISTAN COUNCIL (12-1) – Larry Jones trainee has put in a few fine performances in 2019, but she is unplaced in each of her trio of stakes ventures to this stage of her development. Istan filly will need a lifetime topper to challenge the cast inside the final furlong.
FIRST STAR (6-1) – California import is unbeaten from two lifetime showings in advance of her stakes debut. Ron Ellis charge has posted triple-digit BRIS Late Pace figures in each race, and a forward move gives her a surefire chance with Drayden Van Dyke coming along for the ride.
HOROLOGIST (5-1) – Rising star finished an excellent third in the Cotillion S. (G1) against an outstanding field and has since been moved to conditioner Richard Baltas. Gemologist filly has won four of five coming in, and the bay shows a bullet five-eighths drill on the surface in preparation of the Raven Run. Top win contender will have Joe Bravo in the stirrups.
NEEDS SUPERVISION (30-1) – Upset contender has been first or second in all but one of her lifetime engagements, and the Kentucky-bred has a lot of appeal at a big number. Jeremiah O’Dwyer trainee has some class to her, and she also had an ideal prep when a closing second at Laurel Park off the pine. Daughter of Paynter offers great value beneath Feargal Lynch.
IRISH MISCHIEF (12-1) – Brad Cox charge gets a tough draw while widest of all but has shown improvement since adding blinkers three back. Into Mischief lass was a closing second in the Charles Town Oaks (G3) most recently, and she could be a contender today with a move forward off last time. Mike Smith inherits the mount.
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