How to bet the Suburban Stakes

The historic $200,000 Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park will be renewed for the 134th time on Independence Day, and the 1 1/4-mile event is shaping up to be a great betting race.

The field is deep, but three horses offering varying strengths strike me as the most appealing plays in this competitive race. They are:

• The consistent exotics contender, #1 Tacitus (9-5): Though he’s not a winning machine, Belmont Stakes runner-up Tacitus never runs a bad race and hit the board in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Travers (G1), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) running 1 1/4 miles last season. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will re-equip Tacitus with blinkers after racing the colt without headgear in his first two starts of 2020.

• The dangerous speed horse, #4 Mr. Buff (2-1): This talented New York-bred has faltered in his previous attempts to step up against graded stakes company, but two starts back he obliterated fellow New York-breds in the 1-mile Haynesfield S., carving out fast fractions on his way to a 20-length victory. Mr. Buff was beaten to second in Belmont’s Commentator S. on June 12, but he was returning from a 3 1/2-month layoff and didn’t get off to the best break. If he shakes loose on an uncontested lead in the Suburban, Mr. Buff could prove tough to catch.

• The promising up-and-comer, #8 Moretti (5-1): A son of stamina influence Medaglia d’Oro, Moretti is on the rise for trainer Todd Pletcher. After rallying to win a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park, Moretti stretched out over 1 3/8 miles and dominated the Flat Out S. at Belmont, leading all the way to score by 5 1/4 lengths with something left in the tank. Maybe racing over a sloppy track enhanced Moretti’s performance. Or maybe he’s just getting good right now.

In a race seemingly destined to unfold at a modest tempo, I’ll place my faith in the speed horses and play Mr. Buff and Moretti on top in the exacta and trifecta. Underneath, I’ll emphasize Tacitus while adding 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1) champion #6 Sir Winston (7-2) and recent Westchester (G3) third-place finisher #3 Forewarned (30-1) to a small trifecta ticket:

$4 Exacta: 4,8 with 1,4,8 ($16)
$2 Trifecta: 4,8 with 1,4,8 with 1,4,8 ($8)
$1 Trifecta: 4,8 with 1,4,8 with 3,6 ($8)
Total: $32

Good luck!