How to calculate fair odds for Kentucky Derby future wagers

When pondering a Kentucky Derby (G1) future wager, how do you draw the line between fair odds and odds too short to be worth the risk?

It’s a multi-faceted question, dependent on timing, basic math and personal opinion. Shorter prices are more acceptable two or three months out from the Derby, when the key contenders are easier to identify.

But if you’re looking to place a future wager five months out from the Derby—say, when 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 opens for business on November 28—you’ll want to demand large odds before your place a bet.

There are so many variables to consider. A horse who seems promising as a juvenile might fail to progress over the winter. A horse you’ve never heard of could burst onto the scene in March and become an obvious choice to win the Derby. Or you could bet on a promising horse, watch him hurdle every obstacle on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and then tear your hair out when he scratches with a hoof bruise two days before the race.

So how do you calculate fair Kentucky Derby odds this far out? I suggest reviewing the last 15 editions of the Kentucky Derby to determine which type(s) of horses are most likely to prevail on the first Saturday in May. I would suggest using a larger sample size, but the Kentucky Derby has evolved through the years, and sampling Derbys from 25 or 30 years ago would skew the results of the analysis.

To save you some time, I reviewed the last 15 editions of the Kentucky Derby and identified the following trends:

• Five of the last 15 Derby winners (33%) won a graded stakes race over a route distance (one mile or longer) as a juvenile.
• Three of the last 15 Derby winners (20%) contested the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
• Nine of the last 15 Derby winners (60%) failed to contest a single graded stakes route race as a juvenile.

Based on these rough trends, we can calculate approximate fair odds for various types of horses:

• There’s a 33% chance the Derby will be won by a horse who prevailed in a graded stakes route race as a juvenile. There are 17 such races held in North America each year. The chances of any given graded stakes route winner prevailing in the Kentucky Derby are thus 33% divided by 17, or about 2%. This translates to fair odds of 50-1.
• There’s a 20% chance of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile contestant winning the Kentucky Derby. Since there were eight starters in the 2018 Juvenile, the odds of any one runner prevailing on the first Saturday in May are 20% divided by 8, or 2.5%. This translates to fair odds of 40-1.
• There’s a 60% chance the Kentucky Derby will be won by a horse who failed to contest a single graded stakes route race as a juvenile. When added to the 33% chance of a graded stakes route race winner prevailing in the Run for the Roses, this leaves just a 7% chance of victory to be split among all non-winning starters in the 17 graded stakes route races for juveniles. Fair odds for these horses must generally exceed 100-1.

Armed with these statistics, I’ll establish 40-1 as the minimum odds I’ll accept for a Kentucky Derby future wager. I’ll reserve this relatively short price for Anneau d’Or (runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) and Maxfield (winner of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity), the top two horses in my early Kentucky Derby Top 10.

Eighteen horses have earned qualification points on the 2019-2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby. My fair odds for these Derby candidates are as follows:

            Anneau d’Or – 40-1             Maxfield – 40-1             Dennis’ Moment – 50-1             Storm the Court – 75-1             Tiz the Law – 75-1             Eight Rings – 75-1             Gouveneur Morris – 75-1             Express Train – 75-1             American Theorem 100-1             Scabbard – 100-1             Wrecking Crew – 100-1             Green Light Go 150-1             Big City Bob – 150-1             Letmeno – 200-1             Enforceable – 200-1             Ajaaweed – 200-1             Lebda – 300-1             Gozilla – 300-1

These fair odds will help guide my wagering strategy for Future Wager Pool 1. Unless I can secure these prices or better, I won’t be inclined to place a bet. I'll instead wait for sounder betting opportunities as the winter progresses.

What are the minimum odds you’re willing to accept for a Kentucky Derby future wager?