How to play Keeneland on Saturday, April 20, 2019

Keeneland closes out its 2019 spring meet on Saturday with a nine-race card that includes the Elkhorn Stakes (G3). The early Pick 5 has some modest fields so we won’t have to consume much bankroll with 50-cent increments. Race 1 is for $30,000 maiden claimers going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. It looks like a three-horse field with ROYAL EDITION (#2) (4-1), PRIVATE BOONE (#3) (5-1) and WAY TOO WICKED (#6) (7-2). We will use all three. Race 2 is a six-furlong dirt sprint for $20,000 claimers who have not won two races lifetime. TOLLY HO (#4) (3-1) showed speed in both career starts on the synthetic track at Turfway Park and held on to win in good time last out there. Ben Colebrook adds Lasix in this spot and picks up Luis Saez. Looks a single to me. Race 3 is a $20,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares going seven furlongs on the main track. It looks like a three-horse race between Fair Grounds shippers CAPTAIN LIVI (#2) (3-1), SWEETEST APPEAL (#3) (7-2) and HAVE NO FEAR (#4) (3-1). Race 4 is a turf race going 1 1/8 miles for four-year-olds and up who have never won three races other than or four races lifetime. With only six runners, and all hard to separate, we will buy this race so the play is ALL. Race 5 concludes the early Pick 5 and it is a $40,000 six-furlong dirt sprint for fillies and mares who have never won two races lifetime. TAP THAT CAT (#5) (3-1) broke his maiden going gate to wire at Oaklawn Park against $30,000 maiden claimers and now is spotted correctly by Brad Cox. MY MIDNIGHT AFFAIR (#8) (7-2) took eight starts to break her maiden but she did it with authority last out here going seven furlongs on a dull track. As long as she doesn’t fall too far behind, she’ll be a big stretch factor. PICK 5 #2, #3, #6 with #4 with #2, #3, #4 with #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 with #5, #8 = $54 Race 10 closes Keeneland racing out until October and it is a 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint for maiden three-year-olds. There are some interesting pedigrees among the four who have yet to race. HIGHEST HONORS (#1) (3-1) is by Tapit out of a stakes-winning dam who has produced two stakes winners. FOX ON THE RUN (#2) (12-1) is by Curlin out of a dam who was a stakes winner and has produced six winners from seven foals to race, including two stakes winners. STRONG MARKET (#3) (6-1) is by Medaglia d’Oro out of an unraced full sister to Bernardini. Finally, WINNING NUMBER (#9) (20-1) is by top first-out sire Speightstown out of a dam who is an unraced full sister to Grade 1 scorer Bluegrass Cat. Of the ones who have run, FORTUNE’S FOOL (#4) (3-1) just missed in his career debut going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park and has trained well since then. WHERE PARADISE LAY (#8) (5-2) finished third in his career debut then he came back as the favorite and missed by a neck. I think Highest Honors is at a big disadvantage breaking from post one. Fox On the Run has nothing not to like other than he only cost $100,000 as a yearling which made him the 41st highest-priced yearling by Curlin out of 56 sold that year. Strong Market is bred to be anything on the dirt but his best might be going longer than today’s sprint distance. Winning Number is going to be our key horse. He has the pedigree for first-out sprint success and his trainer is six for 12 with debut runners. At 20-1 morning line, he will be our key. WIN/PLACE #9 EXACTA BOX #9 with #1, #2, #3, #4, #8 TRIFECTA BOX #8, #9 with #1, #2, #3, #4, #8, #9 with #1, #2, #3, #4, #8, #9 PHOTO: Keeneland (c) Coady Photography