Keeler Johnson's MEGA picks and plays of the day for Oct. 30

October 30th, 2021

One week out from the Nov. 5-6 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, there aren’t many graded stakes slated to take place across North America. But that doesn’t mean the final Saturday in October will be dull.

To the contrary, Belmont Park and Indiana Grand have assembled absolutely action-packed race cards for our enjoyment. Belmont has eight stakes for New York-breds on the agenda, while Indiana Grand is following suit with a quartet of stakes for Indiana-breds. Even better, Belmont boasts a lucrative $44,262 carryover in the Pick 6.

In short, Saturday might be the perfect day to work on building our Breeders’ Cup bankroll. Let’s take a grand total of $250 and spread it across a bevy of stakes spot plays and a Pick 6 ticket—a mega day of picks and plays, if you will. With a little bit of racing luck, we’ll walk away with a tidy profit we can bet back during the Breeders’ Cup.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include…

  • Indiana Grand Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $20) if your horse finishes second in any race at Indiana Grand.
  • Indiana Grand $2,000 Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Pick 5 (Races 3-7) at Indiana Grand to split a $2,000 bonus jackpot.
  • Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Keeneland.
  • Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Belmont Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
  • Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Down Royal (Ireland).

Indiana Grand

Race 4: Indiana Stallion Fillies S. (six furlongs, 1:47 p.m. ET)

#8 Holy Justice (3-5) is a half-length away from being undefeated in four starts, a record highlighted by victories in the Back Home Again S. and Miss Indiana S. here at Indiana Grand. A tactical filly capable of setting the pace or rating behind the leaders if necessary, Holy Justice has run fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, putting up figures of 70 and 68 in her two stakes wins. Those happen to be the two highest figures in Saturday’s field.

Drawing an outside post sets the stage for a clean and unencumbered trip, so it’s easy to see why Holy Justice is an odds-on favorite to prevail. Taking advantage of the Indiana Grand Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $20 win bet on Holy Justice.

#6 Unbridled Victory (6-1), who beat a pair of next-out winners when breaking her maiden at Indiana Grand, can complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #8 Holy Justice
$20 Exacta: 8 with 6
Total: $40

Race 7: Lady Fog Horn S. (1 1/16 miles, 3:23 p.m. ET)

#6 Pretty Assets (12-1) might not be the most consistent filly in the field, but on her best day, this stretch-running mare is capable of putting up a competitive effort. Runner-up in the Hoosier Heartland S. over this track and distance two starts back, Pretty Assets ran her strongest race during the summer at Indiana Grand, rallying to beat #7 Fireball Baby (2-1) in a 1 1/16-mile allowance.

As a deep closer, Pretty Assets is at the mercy of the pace. The good news is, there’s lots of speed in the Lady Fog Horn field, which may compromise front-running Fireball Baby, as well as morning-line favorite #8 Hungarian Princess (8-5), a multiple stakes-winning sprinter stretching out in distance. With the right setup, Pretty Assets might just come running to spring a surprise under jockey Joshua Morales, who has gone 2-for-5 (40%, 80% in-the-money) when teaming up with trainer Gary Patrick over the last two months.

Let’s place a win bet on Pretty Assets, then play her over Fireball Baby and Hungarian Princess in the exacta.

$20 to win on #6 Pretty Assets
$5 Exacta: 6 with 7,8 ($10)
Total: $30

Belmont Park

Race 3: Sleepy Hollow S. (one mile, 1:41 p.m. ET)

#4 Shipsational (7-5) ran a big race in the seven-furlong Bertram F. Bongard S. at Belmont last month, finishing strongly from behind a solid pace to win by two lengths over next-out stakes winner Senbei. Shipsational’s final time of 1:23.64 translated to a powerful 101 Brisnet Speed rating, and a similar performance on Saturday figures to land the son of Midshipman in the winner’s circle.

Recent Belmont maiden winners #2 Overstep (6-5) and #3 Who Hoo That’s Me (9-2) can complete the exacta and trifecta.

$10 Exacta: 4 with 2
$10 Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 3
Total: $20

Race 8: Empire Distaff H. (1 1/16 miles, 4:21 p.m. ET)

#8 Maiden Beauty (6-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in seven starts this season, and has been particularly sharp since being claimed by trainer Robert Falcone. After finishing second in the 1 1/8-mile Saratoga Dew H. at Saratoga, Maiden Beauty dropped down in class and distance for a one-mile allowance at Belmont Park, which she wired by 4 1/4 lengths.

Maiden Beauty’s allowance win came against open company and produced a 100 Brisnet Speed rating, so the bay mare figures to be formidable while facing fellow New York-breds on Saturday. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche has been hot when teaming up with Falcone over the last two months, going 3-for-6 (50%), so we’ll bet Maiden Beauty to win and key her over #10 Trinni Luck (7-2) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #8 Maiden Beauty
$10 Exacta: 8 with 10
Total: $30

Race 9: Empire Classic H. (1 1/8 miles, 4:52 p.m. ET)

#5 Americanrevolution (7-5) is 3-for-3 against fellow New York-breds, with daylight romps in the New York Derby and Albany S. among his triumphs. Even better, Americanrevolution held his own against Grade 1 company in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) last month, finishing third behind Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contender Hot Rod Charlie.

With a pair of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Americanrevolution looks tough to beat on Saturday. We’ll use defending Empire Classic winner #3 Mr. Buff (9-2) for second place.

$30 to win on #5 Americanrevolution
$10 Exacta: 5 with 3
Total: $40

Carryover Watch

Belmont Park, Race 5: $44,262 Pick 6 carryover (2:43 p.m. ET)

Just in time for a busy Saturday of New York-bred stakes, Belmont Park has accumulated an enticing $44,262 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence, then assemble a ticket on a $90 budget. It’s a pricey play, but since Belmont’s Pick 6 is a non-jackpot wager that splits any carryover among all winning bettors, it may be worth the investment.

Race 5: Hudson H. (6 1/2 furlongs)

#8 Ny Traffic (2-1) is a logical favorite while dropping in class and distance off of three straight graded stakes runs; he actually kicked off 2021 with a blowout allowance win sprinting seven furlongs at Belmont. But Ny Traffic’s form has technically slipped with every start this season, so we have to use #1 Judge N Jury (5-1) and #7 Our Last Buck (3-1) as backup.

Race 6: Iroquois S. (6 1/2 furlongs)

#2 The Important One (7-5) has won two straight allowance sprints since transitioning from turf to dirt, while #1 Miss Jimmy (9-5) is 2-for-2 since being claimed by trainer Bruce Anderson. One or the other should win this dash for fillies and mares.

Race 7: Maid of the Mist S. (one mile)

#1 Venti Valentine (3-1) rallied to win a nice maiden sprint at Belmont last month and retains the services of three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz. But #5 Sandy’s Garden (7-2) could be any sort after obliterating a Finger Lakes maiden sprint by 20 3/4 lengths, and #7 Velvet Sister (4-1) is worth including after finishing second twice against New York-bred stakes company.

Race 8: Empire Distaff H. (1 1/16 miles)

As outlined above, #8 Maiden Beauty (6-1) is our top choice at a fair price. Rather than spread deep in this competitive field, we’ll take a bold stand and single Maiden Beauty.

Race 9: Empire Classic H. (1 1/8 miles)

#5 Americanrevolution (7-5) looks like a standout as explained earlier, so we’ll make the son of Constitution our second single in the Pick 6 sequence.

Race 10: Allowance (seven furlongs)

#12 War Terminator (3-1) is a logical threat after finishing second over this course, distance, and class level during the spring. But he hasn’t run in six months and is marooned in an outside post, so we have to include #5 King Angelo (7-2), #6 Neuro (5-1), #7 Chrome Dixie (12-1), and #11 Saratoga Flash (12-1) as backup.

$1 Pick 6: 1,7,8 with 1,2 with 1,5,7 with 8 with 5 with 5,6,7,11,12 ($90)

Good luck!

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