Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Feb. 1 at Mahoning Valley, Turf Paradise, and Parx Racing, plus a horse to single in Sunland Park’s $498 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Harvest (5-2) has been facing arguably tougher competition over the synthetic tracks at Woodbine and Turfway Park, earning a respectable string of Brisnet Speed ratings in the 61-77 range. The daughter of Street Sense most recently set the pace in a one-mile maiden special weight at Turfway before weakening to finish sixth in a large field.

Harvest is bred to handle dirt and shouldn’t have any trouble negotiating Tuesday’s one-mile distance; last November, she ran second over 1 1/4 miles at Woodbine. Throw in the fact trainer Susan Anderson has been hot at Mahoning (winning at a 33% rate), and Harvest is worthy of a win bet.

#9 Nell’s Bells (15-1) can complete the exacta at a nice price.

• $20 to win on #4 Harvest
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 9
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $6,250 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile, 3:11 p.m. ET)

#1 Stars of Bluegrass (6-5) is 2-for-2 since shipping to Turf Paradise and transferring to the care of Jonathan Wong. The daughter of Bluegrass Cat nabbed a $10,000-$8,500 claimer racing one mile on turf before rallying from midfield to win a $12,500 allowance optional claimer over one mile on dirt.

The latter effort produced a career-best 79 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping Stars of Bluegrass as the filly to beat while facing easier competition. Wong wins at a lofty 38% rate with horses dropping in class off a victory, so we’ll bet Stars of Bluegrass to win and key her over the speedy #4 Camano Comet (6-1) in an exacta.

• $25 to win on #1 Stars of Bluegrass
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 10: Allowance (seven furlongs, 4:28 p.m. ET)

#5 Dreams Untold (3-1) loves Parx, compiling a 10-5-2-1 record over the local main track. The son of Smarty Jones was especially impressive in the six-furlong Blitzen S. at Parx last month, tracking a quick early pace before seizing command to win by 3 3/4 lengths.

Dreams Untold hasn’t been the most consistent horse in training, but he routinely shows excellent tactical speed and is 2-for-3 sprinting seven furlongs. Trainer John Servis has been hot at Parx, winning at a 23% rate, so let’s count on Dreams Untold to win right back over #1 New Commission (6-1), #6 Fortheluvofbourbon (4-1), #7 Backsideofthemoon (5-1), and #8 Press My Bets (6-1).

We’ll key Dreams Untold on top of a trifecta, in order to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

• $18 to win on #7 My Cowboy
• $1 Trifecta: 5 with 1,6,7,8 with 1,6,7,8 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 8: $498 Pick 5 carryover (5:31 p.m. ET)

If you want to chase a non-jackpot carryover at a U.S. Thoroughbred racetrack, your Tuesday options are limited. The only suitable choice is the $498 prize pool in Sunland Park’s 50-cent Pick 5.

A competitive sequence is on tap for the Pick 5, which offers consolation payoffs on days when no winning tickets are sold. At least eight horses have been entered in every race for a total of 43 entries, averaging 8.6 per field. All told, there are 46,656 possible outcomes to consider before scratches.

The best chance for a single might come in Race 8, a 5 1/2-furlong allowance restricted to New Mexico-bred three-year-old fillies who have never won two races. The conditions might be a mouthful, but they’ve drawn some quality competitors, including #4 Running for Grace (5-2).

Trained by Casey Lambert, Running for Grace was much the best in her debut against unrestricted maiden special weight company at Ruidoso Downs last summer. Favored at 3-5 to win the five-furlong sprint, Running for Grace dueled for the early lead before drawing off to win by 4 3/4 lengths with a 70 Brisnet Speed rating.

Running for Grace has since placed multiple times against stakes company, most recently coming home second in the six-furlong La Senora S. at Sunland Park. This effort produced a career-best 75 Brisnet Speed rating, reiterating Running for Grace’s speed and ability.

Running for Grace will face eight rivals on Tuesday, but she’s already beaten five of them. The only fillies to have posted similar Brisnet Speed ratings are #8 I’ve Got It (10-1) and #9 Foxy Red (4-1), but the former hasn’t run since September, and the latter finished well behind Running for Grace in the La Senora.

There’s one other factor in Running for Grace’s favor—she’s only run once since the end of October and is eligible to improve in her second start of the year. After all, Lambert’s win rate improves from 14% overall to 20% with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, cementing Running for Grace as a compelling Pick 5 single.

Good luck!