Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 11 at Fair Grounds, Turfway Park, and Turf Paradise, along with suggested singles for the $19,590 Pick 6 carryover at Sam Houston.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Meydan (Dubai) or Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds Race 3: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 3:54 p.m. ET)

#2 Wild for Wycliff (8-5) showed promising form at Fair Grounds last winter, placing in a pair of maiden special weights sprinting six furlongs. He wasn’t quite as sharp during the spring at Churchill Downs, wrapping up his 2021 campaign with an eighth-place finish in a $50,000 maiden claimer. But on that occasion, Wild for Wycliff arguably got burned up setting fractions of :21.26 and :44.36.

Wild for Wycliff has since been freshened by hot trainer Tom Amoss, who wins at a 24% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Amoss also strikes at a 35% rate with horses dropping two or more levels down the class ladder, so descending into a $20,000 maiden claimer should help Wild for Wycliff produce a winning effort off the layoff.

Fellow speedster #3 Steely Danza (2-1), runner-up in a $12,500 maiden claimer over this track and distance last month, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Wild for Wycliff
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $25

Turf Paradise: Race 5: Turf Paradise Turf S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#8 Giant Payday (6-1) has been unstoppable since arriving at Turf Paradise last fall. The eight-year-old veteran (winner of multiple stakes in his heyday) has gone 3-for-3 over the local turf course, most recently rallying to win an allowance optional claimer by a neck.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Giant Payday hasn’t been running quite as fast as local stakes star #3 Tiger Dad (7-2). But Tiger Dad is a speed horse facing a couple of other prominent pace players, so Giant Payday may receive a hot tempo to enhance his late rally.

Let’s bet Giant Payday to win, then play him over Tiger Dad and Southern California shipper #7 Caribou Club (5-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

• $15 to win on #8 Giant Payday
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 3,7 ($8)
• $1 Trifecta: 8 with 3,7 with 3,7 ($2)
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#8 Cause a Stir (8-1) ran well over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 12, charging hard from off the pace to finish second by a neck. The son of Creative Cause pulled two lengths clear of the third-place finisher and posted a solid 74 Brisnet Speed rating in the process.

#3 Noble Jon (3-1) is a logical favorite while dropping out of a maiden special weight at Turfway Park, but Cause a Stir seems just as likely to challenge for victory, and his odds are significantly higher. We’ll bet Cause a Stir to win, then take advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion and play Cause a Stir on top of a cold $10 exacta using Noble Jon for second place.

• $15 to win on #8 Cause a Stir
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 3
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Sam Houston, Race 4: $19,590 Pick 6 carryover (9:22 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Space City Pick 6 at Sam Houston has proven elusive in recent days. The 50-cent, non-jackpot wager went unsolved on both Wednesday and Thursday, which means there’s a double carryover worth $19,590 up for grabs on Friday.

Planning to play along? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of possible singles to bookend the sequence:

Race 4: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming: #6 First Empress (7-5)

After competing with some success at Delta Downs, First Empress thrived in her Sam Houston debut last month. Racing one mile in a $10,000 starter optional claimer, First Empress dashed to the front, carved out a modest pace, and kicked on strongly down the homestretch to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

This effort produced a strong 83 Brisnet Speed rating, and First Empress is eligible to run a similar race while sticking to the same distance and class level on Friday. She’s facing only five rivals, and there isn’t a ton of pace in the mix, so First Empress should be able to secure another easy lead under hot jockey Ry Eikleberry (a 28% winner at Sam Houston). From there, First Empress can cruise to victory as a short-priced single.

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight: #3 Stans Home Run (2-1)

Stans Home Run may have misfired in a one-mile turf test on Jan. 27 at Sam Houston, racing near the back throughout to finish seventh. But his form sprinting on dirt is solid, and since this maiden special weight for Texas-breds will take place over seven furlongs on dirt, the conditions should suit Stans Home Run just fine.

Stans Home Run ran second in his debut racing 6 1/2 furlongs against unrestricted company at Remington Park, posting a competitive 69 Brisnet Speed rating. He then ran similarly well in a 5 1/2-furlong dash for Texas-breds at Sam Houston, finishing second with a 67 Brisnet Speed rating. Jockey Ry Eikleberry and trainer Austin Gustafson have been hot together over the last two months, winning at a 35% rate, so Stans Home Run looms as a logical choice in the Friday finale.

Good luck!