Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Feb. 15 at Sunland Park and Turf Paradise, including suggested singles for the $33,826 Pick 5 carryover at Turf Paradise.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Mahoning Valley.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Parx Racing. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Sunland Park: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#6 More Firewater (7-2) has been facing tougher company than he’ll encounter in this $5,000 claimer for New Mexico-breds. Last time out, he set the pace before fading in a $6,250 claimer over one mile, and two starts back, he finished third in a non-state-bred $5,000 claimer over the same distance.

More Firewater has tactical speed and is cutting back in distance for Tuesday’s heat, opening the door for an improved performance. We’ll take a shot betting More Firewater to win and keying him over logical favorite #3 Road to Heat (2-1) in the exacta.

• $15 to win on #6 More Firewater
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $20

Sunland Park: Race 2: $6,250 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:51 p.m. ET)

In a race without a crazy amount of speed on paper, #3 Moro Appeal (5-1) looks like an interesting price play. The five-year-old gelding failed to fire in a recent pair of $5,000 claimers at Sunland, but he was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths in one of them after rearing at the start.

Three starts back, Moro Appeal showed pacesetting speed to wire a $5,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Zia Park, earning a career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating. If Moro Appeal bounces back to peak form in her second start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral, Moro Appeal can get out in front and vie for victory.

#6 Leatherneck (3-1), third in a $6,250 claimer at Sunland last month, can complete the exacta.

• $15 to win on #3 Moro Appeal
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $20

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $6,250 Claiming (six furlongs, 3:57 p.m. ET)

#3 Tick Tock (2-1) has been in strong form since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Justin Evans, a 23% winner at Turf Paradise. After winning a $3,000 claimer, Tick Tock rallied to finish second by a neck in an $8,000-$6,250 starter optional claimer, which preceded a gate-to-wire romp in a $6,250 starter optional claimer.

This three-race series produced improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 70, 77, and 83, suggesting Tick Tock will be tough to beat under hot jockey Harry Hernandez. #5 McGoldie (3-1), who defeated Tick Tock in the previously mentioned $8,000-$6,250 starter optional claimer, is an obvious choice to complete the exacta after hitting the board and putting up solid Brisnet Speed ratings in her last five starts.

• $15 to win on #3 Tick Tock
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise, Race 8: $33,826 Pick 5 carryover (9:22 p.m. ET)

Tuesdays during the winter can be quiet on the horse racing front. But this particular Tuesday is an exception, thanks to an enticing $33,826 non-jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5 at Turf Paradise.

Want to play along? Then you’re in luck, because we’ve analyzed the sequence and identified a pair of possible singles. One is a slim 3-1 morning line favorite, while the other is a 4-1 second choice. If both prevail, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a lucrative payoff.

Race 6: $8,500 Claiming: #4 Indian Gambler (4-1)

Indian Gambler isn’t the favorite to win this 4 1/2-furlong sprint, but from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, he looks competitive at a fair price. In a five-furlong sprint over this track and class level last month, Indian Gambler carved out the pace before settling for second by a neck with a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Indian Gambler had previously thrown down figures of 76 and 79 when finishing first and second in a pair of $3,500 claimers sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Turf Paradise, so we know he’s consistent and capable of competing over this distance.  Pacesetters have gone 18-for-27 (67%) in 4 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Turf Paradise this meet, so Indian Gambler—with his promising pacesetting speed—may prove difficult to run down at a short price.

Race 8: $12,500 Maiden Claiming: #1 Awesome Lady (3-1)

California shipper Awesome Lady looks like a live contender while dropping in class for this six-furlong sprint. In her debut over the Tapeta track at Golden Gate Fields, Awesome Lady gout outsprinted early in a maiden special weight before coming home seventh with a respectable 60 Brisnet Speed rating.

Awesome Lady has since been transferred to the care of trainer Justin Evans, who wins at a lofty 37% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. Throw in the fact Awesome Lady has drawn the rail (which is producing a solid 16% winners over this distance), and the daughter of Mastery looks like a logical choice to conclude the Pick 5.

Good luck!