Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, Feb. 16 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, along with horses to key in carryovers at Turfway and Sam Houston.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:41 p.m. ET)

#6 Kitten’s Collusion (6-1) never fired in her debut over the Monmouth Park turf course last year, finishing seventh by a dozen lengths. But the Graham Motion trainee subsequently unleashed a strong rally to win a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs by 1 1/4 lengths.

As a daughter of Kitten’s Joy, Kitten’s Collusion is bred to shine on turf, so we’ll draw a line through her debut and assume she’ll run better in her second start over the surface. Keep in mind, Motion wins at a 19% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Kitten’s Collusion turned in a solid half-mile workout over the Palm Meadows turf course last week.

Let’s bet Kitten’s Collusion to win and key her over #4 On Alert (5-2), #5 Daisy Bee (6-1), and #7 My Philly Twirl (2-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

• $10 to win on #6 Kitten’s Collusion
• $3 Exacta: 6 with 4,5,7 ($9)
• $1 Trifecta: 6 with 4,5,7 with 4,5,7 ($6)
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 4: $8,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:46 p.m. ET)

#6 The Boss Factor (6-1) clearly relishes the Turfway Park Tapeta track. In his local debut racing one mile for a $5,000 claiming tag on Dec. 12, The Boss Factor ran second. Then in January, The Boss Factor returned to win back-to-back $5,000 claimers over the same track and distance.

The Boss Factor has tactical speed and brings solid Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, so he figures to factor again on Wednesday, even while stepping up to the $8,000 claiming level.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on The Boss Factor, then play him over #8 Flat Out Beautiful (7-2) and #10 High Spirits (10-1) in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #6 The Boss Factor
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 8,10 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

#1 Run for the Hills (3-1) owns two of the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this maiden sprint for three-year-old fillies. At Woodbine last fall, she threw down a field-topping 86 when second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Tapeta. Then on Dec. 9, she took a spin over the Turfway Tapeta to finish second in a six-furlong maiden special weight, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

Run for the Hills has excellent early speed and figures to use it while breaking from the rail, which produces 19% winners over this track and distance. A typical effort should be sufficient to secure victory over #5 Querobin Dourada (10-1) and #6 Love of My Life (5-1).

• $20 to win on #1 Run for the Hills
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Sam Houston, Race 4: $16,119 Pick 6 carryover (6:21 p.m. ET)

Hitting Sam Houston’s 50-cent Space City Pick 6 isn’t easy, which is why the non-jackpot wager boasts a $16,119 carryover for Wednesday’s card.

The finale of the six-race sequence is Race 9, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds sprinting five furlongs on turf. A total of 13 horses have been entered, but oddly enough, none have ever run on grass.

You might assume this makes for a wide-open race, but that won’t necessarily be the case. Morning line favorite #1 Mesabi (1-1) is listed at even-money for a reason—the son of Gun Runner looks like a promising prospect and a possible single to conclude the Pick 6.

Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Mesabi ran too good to lose in his debut over the Sam Houston main track last month. Favored to win a six-furlong maiden special weight, Mesabi dueled for the early lead and led into midstretch before getting nabbed at the finish by stretch-running Durango Jess, who won by a neck.

Even in defeat, Mesabi earned a sharp 88 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest figure in Wednesday’s field. Dam Happy Mesa won multiple stakes on turf, so switching surfaces shouldn’t be an issue. Throw in the fact the rail post produces 22% winners sprinting five furlongs over the Sam Houston turf, and Mesabi looks very tough to beat at a short price.

Turfway Park, Race 10: $2,917 Super High 5 carryover (10:46 p.m. ET)

Sam Houston isn’t the only track offering a non-jackpot carryover on Wednesday. The racing week at Turfway Park begins with a $2,917 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The race involved is a maiden special weight for three-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, and while the field is deep, #7 American Pure (5-2) has the appearance of a potential standout. Conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox (a 23% winner at Turfway this meet), American Pure ran fine in his Dec. 30 debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway, rallying belatedly to finish third with a respectable 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

The form of that race was flattered when runner-up La Belleza Negra returned to dominate his next start against similar company by 11 3/4 lengths. Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, and at a 36% clip with horses racing on Lasix for the first time, so American Pure (who is stretching out and adding Lasix) has a couple of high-percentage winning angles in his corner. Throw in Turfway’s leading jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 26% winner this meet), and American Pure looks like a horse to key on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!