Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $5,349 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Turfway Park $2,500 Jackpot Thursdays: Place $10+ win bets at Turfway Park for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#8 Big Scully (5-1) may have finished 9 1/4 lengths behind #7 Bron and Brow (8-5) when third in the Louisiana Futurity over this track and distance on Dec. 31. But Big Scully was returning from a four-month break, having gone unraced since a sixth-place finish in the Sept. 6 Hopeful S. (G1) at Saratoga.

Following the Louisiana Futurity, Big Scully came back to run second by half a length in a one-mile allowance at Fair Grounds. If he takes a step forward while cutting back in distance for his third start off the layoff, Big Scully can potentially turn the tables on Bron and Brow at a solid price.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Big Scully. Then we’ll bet him over Bron and Brow and #1 Charco (3-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

• $10 to win on #8 Big Scully
• $7 Exacta: 8 with 7
• $3 Trifecta: 8 with 7 with 1
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 3: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#7 Froome (4-5) ran well in his debut for a $30,000 maiden claiming tag over this track and distance in December. The bay gelding raced in fourth place throughout and finished just 3 1/4 lengths behind the winner, earning a respectable 73 Brisnet Speed rating. Notably, both the runner-up and third-place finisher returned to win their next starts.

Trainer Wesley Ward has been hot at Turfway, winning at a 28% rate, so Froome should be tough to beat while dropping down the class ladder and adding Lasix. The first-time starter #2 Air Force Wars (12-1) and the class-dropping #10 Old Beau (7-2) can battle for second place.

• $20 to win on #7 Froome
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 2,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 4: $30,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:46 p.m. ET)

#10 Golden Voice (10-1) has never run over a synthetic track, but her form on turf is encouraging. She’s competed twice against stakes company on the East Coast and was last seen finishing third in a $40,000 claimer at Del Mar, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths.

Golden Voice brings solid Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Chris Landeros and Mike Maker, who have gone 2-for-6 (33%) teaming up together over the last two months. If Golden Voice handles the switch to Tapeta, the drop in class may be sufficient to produce a nice-priced victory.

#1 Admaa (5-1), #4 Sweet Devil (6-1), and #6 Ice Queen (4-1) are other logical contenders.

• $14 to win on #10 Golden Voice
• $2 Exacta: 10 with 1,4,6 ($6)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $5,349 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

Day after day, week after week, Turfway Park manages to conclude their cards with ultra-competitive races. That makes it difficult for bettors to assemble winning tickets for the $1 Super High, which is only offered in the final race of each day.

This means the Super High 5 tends to toss up a lot of carryovers, and indeed, Thursday’s card features a $5,349 carryover. As usual, the race involved is a tough one—a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime. The race will take place over one mile on Tapeta, and 13 horses (including one also-eligible) are in the entries. That’s a lot of possibilities to consider!

The horse to beat appears to be #2 Duel Fuel (3-1). The four-year-old gelding lost the first 17 starts of his career, but he’s been a different horse since dropping in class and tackling the Turfway Tapeta. His first start over the local surface yielded a stretch-running victory in a $5,000 maiden claimer, and his second run produced a neck defeat in a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races.

Both of those races took place over one mile, and Duel Fuel posted solid Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 and 79, so all signs suggest he’ll be competitive again on Thursday. Throw in the fact inside posts and off-the-pace running styles are advantageous at Turfway, and Duel Fuel looks like a horse to key on top in the Super High 5.

Who should we use underneath? #5 Cardiac Kid (7-2) is an obvious choice. In his Turfway debut over this distance and class level on Dec. 2, the son of American Pharoah gained 3 1/4 lengths in the final furlong to finish second by a neck, earning a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

#3 Fat Account (4-1) looks solid, too. A pair of recent sprint starts at Turfway yielded non-competitive finishes, but Fat Account ran well in a couple of routes at Turfway last winter, even finishing second for a $12,500 claiming tag.

Meanwhile, #6 Killer Bee (10-1) offers appeal at a price. The son of English Channel has been struggling on dirt and turf, but last winter at Turfway, Killer Bee rallied nicely to win a $7,500 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles. A return to that level of form (which produced a 75 Brisnet Speed rating) should place Killer Bee in the hunt for a strong finish.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,5,6 with 3,5,6 with 3,5,6,7,13 with 3,4,5,6,7,12,13 ($72)

Good luck!