Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 18

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 18 at Turfway Park and Turf Paradise, along with horses to play in a trio of non-jackpot carryovers at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Meydan (Dubai) or Rosehill (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise Race 4: Princess of Palms S. (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#5 Booze Runner (3-1) is 2-for-2 over the Turf Paradise main track, wiring a $30,000 maiden optional claimer before winning the six-furlong ATBA Three Year Old Sales S. with a rally from midfield. These efforts produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 80, and Booze Runner was never threatened on either occasion, winning by a minimum of 2 3/4 lengths.

Switching to turf is potentially a question mark for Booze Runner, though it’s worth noting she ran well in a couple of grass maiden special weights on the Southern California circuit last year, most significantly running sixth by 3 1/2 lengths at Santa Anita. That effort yielded a career-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating, so Booze Runner should have every chance to handle the Turf Paradise lawn.

Stakes winner #6 Mimajoon (5-2), who broke her maiden over the Golden Gate Fields turf course, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #5 Booze Runner
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 6
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 8: Startac S. (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 6:35 p.m. ET)

There’s quite a bit of speed in the Spartac field, which should suit #9 Next Journey (6-1) just fine. The gray gelding employed rallying tactics when debuting in a $30,000 maiden optional claimer at Turf Paradise last month, overcoming a troubled start to win the one-mile turf test by 2 1/2 lengths.

If Next Journey gets a solid tempo to work with on Friday, he can come running late under hot jockey Fausto Da Silva (a 22% winner at Turf Paradise) to beat #3 Hoya Paranoya (4-1) and #4 Mongolian Memory (6-1) in the dash to the finish line.

• $20 to win on #9 Next Journey
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

From a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, #2 Honorably (3-1) is the fastest horse entered in this maiden special weight for fillies and mares. But the four-year-old filly hasn’t run since June, and she’s never tackled a synthetic track, so it’s unclear whether she’ll produce a peak effort on Friday.

In contrast, #3 Blessing the Flag (4-1) ran second over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 1, earning a respectable 80 Brisnet Speed rating. Her solid recent race and proven affinity for Tapeta stamp Blessing the Flag as a logical choice to upset Honorably.

In addition to a win bet on Blessing the Flag, we’ll take advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion and play a $10 exacta keying Blessing the Flag over Honorably.

• $20 to win on #3 Blessing the Flag
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 3: $46,487 Pick 6 carryover (1:58 p.m. ET)

On an action-packed day for non-jackpot carryovers, one of the first prize pools to chase is the $46,487 offering on the table in Aqueduct’s $1 Pick 6.

The best chance for a single may come right off the bat in Race 3, a $25,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. #2 Thegoddessofsnakes (2-1) misfired in a $50,000 starter allowance on Jan. 1 at Aqueduct, fading to finish last by a wide margin. But perhaps she didn’t care for the sloppy track—she’s been soundly defeated in all three of her runs over off tracks thus far.

In contrast, Thegoddessofsnakes has run strongly in two starts on dry dirt, smashing a $20,000 maiden claimer at Parx Racing before finishing third in a $50,000 starter allowance over 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct. These efforts produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and 83, fast enough to win on Friday. If Thegoddessofsnakes encounters a dry track, she can bounce back with a big run and deliver as a Pick 6 single.

Santa Anita, Race 1: $37,084 Super High 5 carryover (4:00 p.m. ET)

Friday’s card at Santa Anita kicks off with a lucrative $37,084 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. The race involved is a $25,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf, and since only seven horses have entered, there are only 2,520 possible outcomes to consider.

We can reduce the number of possibilities down to just 360 if we’re willing to key #2 Sugary (9-5) on top of our tickets. She might be nine years old, but Sugary has been in strong form for trainer Jonathan Wong, hitting the board in each of her last eight starts. On Jan. 8, she was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths when fourth in a $25,000 claimer over 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita.

#4 Miss Flawless (4-1) has finished right behind Sugary in their last two meetings and looms as a logical choice to emphasize underneath.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 4 with 1,3 with 1,3,6 with ALL ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,3,6 with ALL ($12)
  Total: $24

Fair Grounds, Race 5: $56,393 Pick 5 carryover (4:05 p.m. ET)

The largest non-jackpot carryover on the table for Friday is the $56,393 prize pool up for grabs in the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Turfway Park. A competitive sequence featuring 42 entries (averaging 8.4 per race) is on the agenda, and finding a viable single isn’t easy.

One possibility comes in Race 7, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. A relatively small seven-horse field is on tap, with #6 Bombdiggity (5-2) looking like the one to beat for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Sold for $600,000 as a yearling, the daughter of Into Mischief ran well in her Nov. 6 debut at Churchill Downs, carving out a solid pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish sixth.

Bombdiggity is adding Lasix and picking up hot jockey Brian Hernandez for her sophomore debut, setting the stage for an improved performance. Keep in mind, Asmussen wins at an excellent 22% rate with second-time starters. Throw in the fact there isn’t much speed in Friday’s field, and Bombdiggity should have every chance to secure an uncontested lead. What’s not to like? She looks tough to beat.

In contrast, Race 9—a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles—features a potentially vulnerable favorite in the form of #8 Sequist (7-2). The daughter of Nyquist was good enough to place third in the Alciabides S. (G1) and fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last year, but she’s returning from a 3 1/2-month layoff and is a pure deep closer at the mercy of the pace. Unless a rapid tempo unfolds, Sequist may struggle to catch more tactical rivals like #2 Mariah’s Fortune (5-1) and #4 Bird Empress (9-2)

Good luck!