Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Monday, Feb. 21 at Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, including a pair of stakes.

Picks and Plays

Santa Anita: Race 5: Spring Fever S. (six furlongs, 5:38 p.m. ET)

#5 Becca Taylor (4-5) is unbeaten in five starts, including three on dirt. In the 6 1/2-furlong Evening Jewel S. at Santa Anita last spring, she tracked a fast pace before seizing command to win by 2 1/4 lengths.

Becca Taylor recently returned from long layoff to dominate a 5 1/2-furlong allowance over the Tapeta track at Golden Gate Fields, but in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, she isn’t the fastest filly in Monday’s field. That honor belongs to #4 Super Game (3-1).

Super Game never really fired in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint S. at Santa Anita last month, finishing 11th. But two starts back, she smashed a 6 1/2-furlong allowance by five lengths, earning a flashy 98 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Monday’s field.

If Super Game bounces back to this level of form while returning to dirt, she can spring a mild upset. We’ll bet her over Becca Taylor in a cold exacta.

• $25 Exacta: 4 with 5

Fair Grounds: Race 9: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#3 Steely Danza (2-1) has finished second in four straight maiden claimers, on each occasion flashing serious early speed. On Feb. 11, he finished second in a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds, which followed a half-length defeat in a $12,500 maiden claimer over the same track and distance.

Steely Danza brings a competitive series of Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and looks like the fastest of the speed horses on paper, so he’ll have every opportunity to secure an uncontested lead. From there, Steely Danza should prove difficult to catch, even while running back on short rest.

We'll place a large win bet on Steely Danza. #8 Sportini (6-1) and #9 Runandhide Wind (5-1) can battle for a spot in the exacta.

• $25 to win on #3 Steely Danza
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 8,9 ($10)
  Total: $35

Santa Anita: Race 7: Tiznow S. (one mile, 6:39 p.m. ET)

Graded stakes-winning sprinter #4 Brickyard Ride (4-5) is the heavy favorite after wiring the California Cup Sprint S. at Santa Anita by 1 3/4 lengths. But the brilliant California-bred is prone to misfiring on occasion, and he’s unproven running one mile—can he successfully stretch out in distance?

We’ll try to beat Brickyard Ride with #5 Touchdown Brown (5-2). Touchdown Brown failed to show any early speed at all in a seven-furlong allowance at Santa Anita last month, but he gained a ton of ground down the homestretch to finish fourth by just 2 3/4 lengths.

Touchdown Brown has run well around two turns (most notably winning a one-mile allowance for California-breds at Del Mar last summer), and since there’s a fair amount of pace in the Tiznow field, Touchdown Brown should receive a solid pace to enhance his late rally.

We’ll bet Touchdown Brown to win, then key him over Brickyard Ride and #3 Wilder Than Most (3-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #5 Touchdown Brown
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!