Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 22

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Feb. 22 at Mahoning Valley, Parx Racing, Turf Paradise, and Sunland Park, including a ticket for Sunland’s $530 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Mahoning Valley. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 1:12 p.m. ET)

#3 My d’Valentine (4-1) fired off an encouraging effort over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 1. Making her first start around two turns on dirt, My d’Valentine opened up a daylight early lead before staying on to finish second with a respectable 62 Brisnet Speed rating.

In a small field without much speed on paper, My d’Valentine figures to secure an easy lead. And since stretch-running favorite #4 H. T. Xena (1-1) has yet to hit the board while producing her best efforts on synthetic, My d’Valentine looms as a logical upset candidate.

We’ll bet My d’Valentine to win, then take advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion and place a $10 exacta keying My d’Valentine over H. T. Xena. Finally, we’ll throw in #5 Schooled (3-1) for a trifecta aimed at capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday offer.

• $16 to win on #3 My d’Valentine
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 4
• $2 Trifecta: 3 with 4,5 with 4,5 ($4)
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 8: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:34 p.m. ET)

#2 Justhappy (9-5) is the morning line favorite after cracking the trifecta in five straight starts, including a pair of $40,000 maiden claimers at Parx Racing. But four of those efforts came running one mile or farther, and cutting back in distance isn’t guaranteed to produce a similar performance.

That’s why #4 Reid’s Fangirl (7-2) offers appeal. The daughter of Bayern is exiting a pair of maiden special weights sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Parx, in which she finished second and third. Dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company is a winning move 23% of the time for trainer Robert Mosco, and Reid’s Fangirl has the tactical speed to be prominent from the outset.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Reid’s Fangirl. Then we’ll play her over Justhappy in a cold exacta.

• $10 to win on #4 Reid’s Fangirl
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $20

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $3,500 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 5:54 p.m. ET)

Formerly based on the Southern California circuit, #9 Irresistibly Sexy (6-5) thrived when transitioning to Turf Paradise last month. Making his first start for high-percentage trainer Justin Evans (a 24% winner at Turf Paradise this meet), Irresistibly Sexy wired a $15,000-$12,500 maiden claiming sprint by 1 1/2 lengths.

This effort produced a sharp 75 Brisnet Speed rating, and since Irresistibly Sexy looms as one of few speed horses in Tuesday’s field, he figures to receive a favorable trip on or near the lead. From there, he can cruise to another victory under hot jockey Isaias Enriquez.

The class-dropping #6 Rise Up Moscow (4-1) is a logical choice to complete the exacta.

• $25 to win on #9 Irresistibly Sexy
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 6
  Total: $30

---

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 9: $530 Super High 5 carryover (5:59 p.m. ET)

A small but intriguing Super High 5 carryover is up for grabs on Tuesday at Sunland Park.

The 50-cent wager boasts a non-jackpot carryover worth $530. In the event no one assembles the winning combination, a portion of the pool will be paid out as consolation to bettors who come closest.

The carryover is on the table is Race 9, the final event on the card. The race in question is a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for New Mexico-bred three-year-olds, and on paper, #9 Discovery N Sight (4-1) and #10 Pancho Left Me (3-1) look like standouts.

Discovery N Sight and Pancho Left Me have faced off twice before over this track and class level. On Jan. 11, Discovery N Sight (in his debut performance) unleashed a big rally from behind a fast pace to finish second, a neck clear of the pace-tracking Pancho Left Me. But the tables were turned on Feb. 1, when a more relaxed pace allowed Pancho Left Me to out-kick Discovery N Sight by 1 1/2 lengths.

Pancho Left Me and Discovery N Sight look strong against Tuesday’s field, and a 1-2 finish could certainly be in the offing. We’ll bet the Super High 5 accordingly, boxing them in the top two slots of our tickets.

For the minor awards, we’ll focus our attention on #6 Chippster (5-1) and Quinton’s Charmer (8-1). Chippster ran gamely when fourth in the above-mentioned Feb. 1 maiden heat, rallying from off the pace to finish just a neck behind Discovery N Sight. Meanwhile, Quinton’s Charmer is cutting back in distance after running second in a one-mile event over this class level at Sunland.

We’ll round out our tickets by hitting the “ALL” button, since the form beyond the favorites is rather difficult to decipher. A case can be made for almost any horse to finish fourth or fifth.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 9,10 with 9,10 with 6,8 with 6,8 with ALL ($10)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 9,10 with 9,10 with 6,8 with ALL with 6,8 ($10)
  Total: $20

Good luck!