Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Feb. 24 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $8,983 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Turfway Park $2,500 Jackpot Thursdays: Place $10+ win bets at Turfway Park for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

Since 2017, trainer Sam David has compiled an excellent 10-for-48 (21%) record saddling first-time starters at Fair Grounds. Throw in the fact David wins at a 25% rate overall with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and David’s unraced three-year-old filly #6 Trafalgar Shore (8-1) looks live at a price in this maiden claiming sprint.

A daughter of elite sprinter Lord Nelson, Trafalgar Shore has turned in seven timed workouts at Fair Grounds. None have been particularly flashy (possibly contributing to her 8-1 morning line odds), but Thursday’s field doesn’t look overly tough on paper. Trafalgar Shore might not need a huge performance to challenge for victory.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Trafalgar Shore, then box her in the exacta with the class-dropping favorite #8 Have I Ever (8-1).

• $10 to win on #6 Trafalgar Shore
• $5 Exacta box: 6,8 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 5: Allowance (one mile on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

#5 Poca Mucha (3-1) has shown promising form since tackling the Turfway Tapeta track this winter. In her debut over the local surface, Poca Mucha ran second by a head in a one-mile allowance. Then she came back in an identical race and rallied to victory by one length, earning a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating.

Poca Mucha owns the best synthetic-track Brisnet Speed ratings in Thursday’s field, and her stretch-running style is suitable for this track and distance. A repeat of her last race should carry Poca Mucha to victory over #3 Blood Curdling (6-1), #4 Beam of Light (4-1), #6 Peter’s Kitten (4-1), #8 Guitty (20-1), and #9 Myeerah (5-1), the runners we’ll use to varying degrees in exacta and trifecta tickets.

• $22 to win on #5 Poca Mucha
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 4,6 ($10)
• $1 Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with 3,4,6,8,9 ($8)
  Total: $40

Turfway Park: Race 6: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:46 p.m. ET)

#1 Rutabaga (7-5) looks like a standout in this maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Granted, she’s gone 0-for-8 so far. But she’s cracked the trifecta five times and finished second in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway two starts back, so dropping in class figures to produce a winning performance.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, only one runner in Thursday’s field has run faster than Rutabaga: #2 My Tommy Lee (4-1). But My Tommy Lee’s best figures have been earned on dirt and turf; her form on synthetic is a bit less inspiring, including a third-place finish in a $7,500 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway last month.

If you’re playing the Turfway Park $2,500 Jackpot Thursdays promotion, Rutabaga is worthy of a win bet. Otherwise, we’ll focus on betting Rutabaga over My Tommy Lee, #3 War Ensign (5-1), and #8 Waves (4-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

• $6 Exacta: 1 with 2,3,8 ($18)
• $2 Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,8 with 2,3,8 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $8,983 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

It isn’t easy to hit the $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park. The wager went unclaimed last Friday, resulting in a $1,653 carryover. Saturday’s sequence likewise proved unsolvable, boosting the carryover to $4,590. And on Wednesday, the Super High 5 went unclaimed for the third racing day in a row, resulting in an enticing $8,983 carryover for Thursday’s card.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 8, a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta. A total of 11 horses have been entered, but since #1 Lady Brielle (3-1) and #1A Bella Conchita (3-1) will race as a coupled entry, there are only 10 betting interests to weigh.

The best of the lot might be #8 Trouble Making (5-2). The daughter of Into Mischief has spent much of her career competing on turf, but she showed promise when switching to Tapeta for a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway last month. After dropping back to ninth place, Trouble Making rallied nicely to finish third.

With three straight 80+ Brisnet Speed ratings to her credit, Trouble Making is fast enough to vie for victory on Thursday. Stretching out in distance shouldn’t be an issue, since she’s placed running 1 1/16 miles on turf at Keeneland. Throw in the presence of Turfway’s top jockey Gerardo Corrales, and Trouble Making looks like a filly to key on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, the above-mentioned Bella Conchita is a logical candidate for inclusion. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy ran fourth in a 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight at Turfway last month, earning an 88 Brisnet Speed rating in her Tapeta debut.

#2 Mint Edition (4-1) is another obvious threat after running third in a one-mile maiden special weight at Turfway on Feb. 11, beaten only three-quarters of a length. And we have to strongly consider #4 Epona Bay (5-1) and #9 Fits the Jill (20-1), the 2-3 finishers from a pair of maiden special weight routes at Turfway this winter.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,9 with 1,2,4,9 with 1,2,4,6,9,10 ($54)

Good luck!