Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 25 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in the $39,479 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Meydan (Dubai) or Rosehill (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds Race 9: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#7 Proxy (9-5) was a high-profile name on the Road to the Kentucky Derby last winter, placing second against tough competition in the Lecomte S. (G3) and Risen Star S. (G2) But Proxy’s form deteriorated during the spring, and he hasn’t run since finishing fourth in the April 10 Lexington S. (G3) at Keeneland. Will the long layoff be sufficient to trigger a turnaround?

We’ll oppose Proxy with #3 Treasury (8-1). The five-year-old gelding clearly loves Fair Grounds, boasting a 5-2-3-0 record over the local main track. He’s been especially sharp this winter, wiring a $50,000 starter allowance on Jan. 21 before leading all the way in a $17,500 allowance optional claimer on Feb. 3.

Treasury’s speed figures to give him a tactical advantage over Proxy, and trainer Grant Forster has been ultra-hot at Fair Grounds this meet, going 7-for-26 (27%). Let’s bet Treasury to win, then key him over Proxy in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #3 Treasury
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 7
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 2: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:46 p.m. ET)

Coupled entrymates #1 Strange Arrange (2-1) and #1A Waylaid (2-1) both have jockey Kazushi Kimura named to ride by owner/trainer Wesley Ward, so it’s possible only one will start in this maiden claimer for three-year-olds. Regardless, you can bet one (or both) will receive plenty of support since Ward wins at a lofty 32% rate with runners debuting in maiden claimers.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting Ward’s first-time starters have been a bit less formidable than usual at Turfway this winter, going 1-for-10. So what if we focus our attention on #5 Uncle Dick (5-1) instead?

Uncle Dick didn’t run badly in a $15,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turfway on Feb. 17; he carved out a respectable pace before weakening to finish seventh. Dropping down the class ladder can help Uncle Dick produce a competitive effort for trainer Genaro Garcia, who strikes at a 27% rate with horses descending two or more class levels.

In addition to a win bet on Uncle Dick, we’ll take advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion and play Uncle Dick on top of a cold $10 exacta using Strange Arrange and/or Waylaid for second place.

• $20 to win on #5 Uncle Dick
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

#1 Candace O (3-1) hasn’t missed the board in six starts, including a trio of graded stakes. She was last seen finishing third by just half a length in the Soaring Softly S. (G3) sprinting seven furlongs over the Belmont Park turf last May.

Switching to Tapeta shouldn’t be an issue for Candace O, since she ran third in the one-mile Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway last spring. The layoff isn’t overly concerning either, since she’s put together a promising work tab for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. And the six-furlong trip should suit Candace O just fine, considering her best efforts have come sprinting.

In short, Candace O appears ready to deliver a victory over #9 Ms Temptation (9-2). We’ll capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion and play a $10 exacta accordingly.

• $20 to win on #1 Candace O
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 9
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 4: $39,479 Pick 6 carryover (2:18 p.m. ET)

Who here loves five-figure, non-jackpot Pick 6 carryovers? If you raised your hand (and of course, you did), then let us point you toward Friday’s $39,479 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

The sequence for the $1 wager looks competitive, but we’ve identified a single and a live longshot to build tickets around. With luck, both will prevail and launch us well on our way to a winning ticket.

Live longshot: Race 4, #1 Connected (8-1)

Eight horses will race one mile in this $40,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds, and on paper, the field doesn’t appear overly deep. The first-time starter #8 Braciole (3-1) is the morning line favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher, who wins at a 20% rate with debuting runners. But Pletcher’s win rate drops to 15% with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and Braciole is a son of Micromanage, who sires just 2% winners from first-time starters.

We’ll hope to upset Braciole with #1 Connected (8-1). Granted, the chestnut gelding hasn’t beaten a single horse in his first two starts. But Connected has been facing unrestricted maiden special weight company on turf at Gulfstream Park, where the competition is tougher than he’ll encounter on Friday.

Connected is bred top and bottom to thrive on dirt, so switching surfaces and dropping in class can trigger a step forward. It’s also encouraging to note trainer Timothy Hills has been hot at Aqueduct this winter, going 9-2-3-1 (22%).

Best single: Race 5: #4 Everyoneloveslinda (5-2)

In this six-furlong maiden special weight for sophomore fillies, Everyoneloveslinda looms as a logical choice. The daughter of elite sprinter Secret Circle showed talent in a pair of maiden special weights at Saratoga last summer, finishing second both times while demonstrating the ability to set the pace or rally from behind.

Everyoneloveslinda has been freshened since running fourth in an Oct. 8 maiden special weight at Belmont Park. Her best Brisnet Speed ratings look solid against Friday’s field, and the addition of Lasix can help Everyoneloveslinda bounce back with a peak performance. If there’s a trustworthy single in Friday’s Pick 6, Everyoneloveslinda is probably the one.

Good luck!