Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Feb. 3 at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Turf Paradise, including horses to single (and bet to win) in Aqueduct’s $31,131 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Aqueduct.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 1: Allowance (one mile, 2:05 p.m. ET)

#1 Serape (3-1) owns two of the three highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this allowance for Louisiana-bred sophomore fillies. She threw down a 76 when wiring a one-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds, then improved to a 77 when finishing third in the six-furlong Louisiana Futurity.

Serape is 1-for-1 running long, so stretching back out in trip should help her chances on Thursday. She’s the only obvious frontrunner in the field and picks up hot jockey Brian Hernandez for her seasonal debut, setting the stage for a pacesetting victory.

#6 Mishpachah (9-5), who defeated Serape in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight last fall, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #1 Serape
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 3:05 p.m. ET)

#2 Isolate (9-5) is the morning line favorite after wiring a $40,000 allowance optional claimer over this track and distance last month. But two starts back, Isolate finished 4 3/4 lengths behind #1 Sounion (9-2) in a $62,500 allowance optional claiming sprint at Churchill Downs.

Sounion ran well at Churchill, tracking the early pace before battling tenaciously to win by a neck. The 92 Brisnet Speed rating he posted is identical to the one Isolate received at Fair Grounds, so any way you slice it, Sounion appears fast enough to challenge the favorite.

#3 Ebben (5-2), cutting back in distance off a sixth-place effort in the 1 1/16-mile Tenacious S. at Fair Grounds, can battle for a spot in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #1 Sounion
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $8,500 Claiming (one mile, 4:59 p.m. ET)

#5 T Bones Trick (5-2) has put together a solid string of Brisnet Speed ratings while competing against tougher company on the Southern California circuit. The son of Midnight Lute hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last four starts, most recently coming home third in a $10,000 claimer racing one mile at Santa Anita.

Trainer Jonathan Wong has been hot at Turf Paradise this meet, winning at a 24% rate, and jockey Harry Hernandez (a 27% winner when teaming up with Wong) is named to ride. In short, T Bones Trick appears ready to deliver victory over #2 Gordy’s Rules (12-1) and #4 Surprsinglyperfect (9-2).

• $20 to win on #5 T Bones Trick
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 4: $31,131 Pick 6 carryover (2:18 p.m. ET)

It’s been a long wait, but assuming racing proceeds as scheduled on Thursday at Aqueduct, there will be a $31,131 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

The carryover is left over from last Friday, when a trio of double-digit winners led a string of Pick 6 upsets. But racing was cancelled due to poor weather on Saturday and Sunday, which means the carryover has just been sitting and waiting for an opportunity to disperse.

After analyzing Thursday’s Pick 6, we’ve identified a pair of potential singles to bookend the sequence.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight: #6 Cathedral Beach (7-2)

Plenty of bettors will be keen to support #8 Rhumjar (4-1), who has placed twice in maiden special weight sprints at Aqueduct. On Dec. 30, Rhumjar ran second in a six-furlong dash, 1 1/4 lengths clear of third-place runner Cathedral Beach.

But Rhumjar is a 0-for-4 maiden with arguably less room for upside than Cathedral Beach. The latter was debuting in the Dec. 30 maiden heat and didn’t run badly by any means, tracking the pace before weakening only slightly down the homestretch. Trainer George Weaver (a 13% winner overall) strikes at a 19% rate with second-time starters, so Cathedral Beach should have every chance to step forward and turn the tables in Thursday’s six-furlong dash.

In addition to singling Cathedral Beach, we’ll also place a $10 win bet, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

• $10 to win on #6 Cathedral Beach

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight: #3 Beach Boy Al (3-1)

#6 Eminency (8-5) is the morning line favorite after finishing second and fourth by narrow margins in his first two starts sprinting over this track and class level. He’ll add blinkers while stretching out over one mile for his third career start, but so far he’s displayed an off-the-pace running style not necessarily suited to Thursday’s conditions.

According to data from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, speed horses have been dominant racing one mile at Aqueduct this winter, with Early (E) running style types winning 58% of the time. This points toward #3 Beach Boy Al (3-1) as a logical upset candidate.

Beach Boy Al flashed speed in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Aqueduct last month, tracking a solid pace and leading in midstretch before settling for fifth place by one length. This effort produced a solid 80 Brisnet Speed rating, so if Beach Boy Al sets or tracks a modest pace while stretching out in distance, he can step forward and visit the winner’s circle.

Since Race 9 is part of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Beach Boy Al.

• $10 to win on #3 Beach Boy Al

Good luck!