Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Feb. 4 at Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, plus a ticket for the $14,773 Super High 5 carryover at Santa Anita.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Fair Grounds. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Meydan (Dubai) or Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (five furlongs, 3:54 p.m. ET)

Among the experienced fillies and mares in this maiden sprint, #1 Thatgirl’sonfire (6-1) is easily fastest. Never out of the trifecta in three starts, Thatgirl’sonfire threw down a flashy 72 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing third over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 28, 2021.

On that occasion, Thatgirl’sonfire displayed excellent early speed, carving out fractions of :22.05 and :44.91 before weakening only slightly to finish two lengths away from victory. Thatgirl’sonfire hasn’t run since, but she enters Friday’s heat off a fast series of workouts and should be fit enough to sprint five furlongs in her return.

#7 Midnight Baby (7-2) and #8 Low Dose (5-2) are logical candidates to complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #1 Thatgirl’sonfire
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 5: ATBA Sales S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:26 p.m. ET)

#3 Annie’s Boy (2-1) routinely throws down Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and higher, and he hasn’t missed the exacta in eight starts since transferring to trainer Rafael Barraza roughly one year ago. Annie’s Boy has been especially effective at Turf Paradise, compiling an 8-3-4-0 resume over the local main track.

Victorious in the Zany Tactics S. sprinting five furlongs on turf in December, Annie’s Boy enters the ATBA Sales S. off a solid runner-up effort in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Turf Paradise. The ATBA Sales S. is restricted to horses who were consigned as yearlings to the ATBA Fall Sale, so facing restricted company should be a bit easier for Annie’s Boy.

#1 Beat the Heat (7-2) and #4 Caucus Rules (5-1) are worth using underneath.

• $20 to win on #3 Annie’s Boy
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 9: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#6 Palace Magic (5-2) is the logical favorite after finishing second twice over this track, distance, and class level, but we’ll try to beat her with #4 Higher Note (8-1).

Higher Note has been facing tougher competition at Fair Grounds, finishing second by a neck in a $15,000 maiden claimer before running fifth against $30,000-$25,000 company. Dropping in class and adding blinkers for her third start opens the door for a competitive showing at enticing odds.

We’ll bet Higher Note to win, then key her over Palace Magic in a cold $10 exacta, in order to capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

• $20 to win on #4 Higher Note
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita, Race 3: $14,773 Super High 5 carryover (4:33 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Santa Anita kicks off on Friday with a sizable $14,773 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. It’s not a jackpot wager, so any bettor who assembles a winning ticket will earn a share of the prize pool.

At Santa Anita, the Super High 5 is only offered on races featuring seven or more starters. Since the first two races on Friday’s card drew just five entries apiece, the carryover is up for grabs in Race 3, a $50,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on turf.

With eight entries, the Super High 5 features 6,720 possible outcomes, hardly an unwieldy number. And we can reduce that number considerably if we focus our attention on #5 Pretty Rena (5-2), #1 A Crown for Kitten (3-1), and #7 Ardis (3-1) the logical morning line favorites.

Pretty Rena failed to factor in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Santa Anita main track last month, finishing last by a wide margin. But her first two starts sprinting five furlongs on turf were considerably better—she ran third in her debut at Santa Anita, then seventh with a troubled trip at Del Mar. Returning to turf should trigger a rebound from Pretty Rena, who picks up Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez (a 26% winner at Santa Anita this meet) for her sophomore debut.

A Crown for Kitten also boasts strong credentials. The stretch-running daughter of Kitten’s Joy has made five starts so far, all over one mile on the California circuit. Four of her runs have come against maiden special weight company, and she was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths when fourth in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Santa Anita last month. Cutting back to six furlongs stands to sharpen A Crown for Kitten’s stretch kick, and the presence of jockey Umberto Rispoli (a 21% winner on turf) is a positive.

Finally, Ardis is a lightly raced filly with upside for improvement. In her Jan. 14 debut sprinting six furlongs over the Santa Anita main track, Ardis flashed some early speed before weakening to finish sixth. The daughter of Mohaymen is a half-sibling to a turf stakes winner, and elite grass jockey Flavien Prat (the leading rider at Santa Anita this meet) is named to ride, suggesting Ardis can fire a strong shot while switching to turf and dropping in class for her second start.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1,5,7 with 1,5,7 with 1,5,7 with 3,4,8 with 2,3,4,8,9 ($54)

Good luck!