Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 8

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $100 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Feb. 8 at Parx Racing, Sunland Park, and Turf Paradise, including a trifecta aimed at capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 1: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 12:25 p.m. ET)

There’s barely a drop of speed in this maiden claimer for older horses, which may lend an insurmountable advantage to #3 Majestic Sky (8-5). According to data from Brisnet, horses with the “E” (Early) running style win 62% of one-mile and 70-yard races at Parx, and Majestic Sky just happens to be the only E-type in Tuesday’s field.

Majestic Sky set the pace when second over this track and class level on Jan. 18, earning a strong 76 Brisnet Speed rating while pulling nine lengths clear of the third-place finisher. Majestic Sky is easily the fastest horse in Tuesday’s field, and she figures to fire a winning shot in her first start since being claimed by trainer Michael Pino, a 20% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Majestic Sky. Then we’ll play her over #5 Callmethebreeze (3-1) and #7 Book of Delancey (9-2) in exacta and trifecta tickets.

• $10 to win on #3 Majestic Sky
• $7 Exacta: 3 with 5,7 ($14)
• $3 Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 5,7 ($6)
  Total: $30

Sunland Park: Race 1: $8,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Commissioner David (8-5) has been facing much tougher company than he’ll encounter on Tuesday. Formerly a competitor on the Southern California circuit, Commissioner David recently tackled a five-furlong maiden special weight for his Sunland Park debut, finishing fourth with a solid 67 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Commissioner David’s rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 52, so a typical effort while descending in class should be sufficient to land Commissioner David in the winner’s circle. The fact trainer Dick Cappellucci wins at a 21% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company is also encouraging.

A large win bet on Commissioner David will be our primary play, followed by a small exacta using #7 Rollin in Diamonds (10-1) for second place.

• $30 to win on #6 Commissioner David
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 7
  Total: $35

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:58 p.m. ET)

High-percentage trainer Jonathan Wong rarely saddles first-time starters at Turf Paradise, but when he does, watch out. Since 2017, Wong has gone 2-for-2 under such conditions.

This points toward #5 Northeast Kingdom (7-2) as a key contender in this maiden optional claimer for three-year-olds. The son of multiple Grade 1 winner Carpe Diem has turned in some quick workouts at Santa Anita and even took a familiarizing spin over the Turf Paradise main track on Feb. 1, clocking a swift five furlongs from the starting gate in :47 3/5.

We’ll make Northeast Kingdom the subject of a win bet, then play him on top of an exacta using fellow first-time starters #6 Res Ipsa Loquitur (9-2) and #7 Keeneye George (5-1) for second place.

• $25 to win on #5 Northeast Kingdom
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 6,7 ($10)
  Total: $35

Good luck!