Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Jan. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Jan. 28 at Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, plus a ticket for the $5,929 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Fair Grounds. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Meydan (Dubai) or Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 3:35 p.m. ET)

#7 Prairie (9-5) has hit the board in seven of his nine starts against maiden special weight company, highlighted by a trio of trifecta finishes at Fair Grounds. Along the way, the son of War Front has put up consistent Brisnet Speed ratings, including six in the 79-86 range.

Dropping down the class ladder might be all Prairie needs to visit the winner’s circle. He’s easily the fastest runner on paper, and trainer Al Stall wins at a 24% rate with horses dropping down from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

#1A Unorthodox (3-1) can complete the exacta after placing in his last three starts against $30,000 maiden claiming company at Fair Grounds. We’ll make our exacta a cold $10 variety, in order to capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

• $20 to win on #7 Prairie
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 6: ATBA Three Year Old Sales S. (six furlongs, 4:57 p.m. ET)

#3 Booze Runner (7-2) failed to factor in her first four starts against maiden special weight company on the Southern California circuit. But the daughter of hot young sire Gun Runner was tons the best in a $30,000 maiden optional claimer at Turf Paradise last month. Dashing 5 1/2 furlongs in her local debut, Booze Runner led all the way to trounce a pair of next-out winners by 6 1/2 lengths.

This blowout victory produced an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Friday’s field. A repeat can carry Booze Runner to victory over stakes winner #5 Miss Malia (5-2).

• $20 to win on #3 Booze Runner
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 8: ATBA Three Year Old Sales S. (six furlongs, 5:59 p.m. ET)

#1 Brazen Now (5-2) trounced many of these rivals in the six-furlong Arizona Breeders’ Futurity at Turf Paradise last month. After dueling for the lead through quick fractions of :21.77 and :44.53, Brazen Now kicked on impressively to defeat #10 Bango for Bucks (3-1) in a strung-out field.

Brazen Now reached the finish line in 1:09.60, earning an 86 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Friday’s field. If he repeats the feat in his sophomore debut, he can once again beat Bango for Bucks in the race to the finish line.

• $20 to win on #1 Brazen Now
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 10
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $5,929 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

Another week, another Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park. It’s difficult to assemble a winning ticket for the $1 wager, which is offered on the final race of each card. Full fields are par for the course, and there’s typically tens of thousands of possible outcomes to consider.

Friday’s Super High 5 carryover, worth $5,929, is no exception. The race involved is a $7,500 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The distance is a mere five furlongs on Tapeta, and 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) have been entered. Assuming a full field of 12 heads to post, there are 95,040 possible outcomes.

To reduce the number of possibilities to something more manageable, we’ll key #10 Point Wild (5-2) on top. After spending her first seven starts running long on turf, dirt, and Tapeta, Point Wild thrived when cutting back to six furlongs at Turfway earlier this month. Favored to win a $7,500 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime, Point Wild settled off the pace before pouncing decisively to win by 2 1/4 lengths.

This effort produced a solid 77 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the par rating (75) for Friday’s conditions. If Point Wild has found a new home sprinting on Tapeta, she can win right back for trainer Cipriano Contreras, who strikes at a 23% rate with last-out winners.

Who should we use underneath? #9 Diamond Lydiamarie (3-1) has never run on Tapeta, but she’s hit the board in four straight allowance events and picks up hot jockey Gerardo Corrales for her local debut. #6 Anotation (3-1) is another logical choice after finishing fifth in a $15,000 claimer dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway. And while #3 Aunt Irene (15-1) has been facing easier company, she did produce a sharp 74 Brisnet Speed rating when second in a $5,000 claiming sprint at Turfway.

The wildcard we’ll have to ponder is #13 Escape Fund (5-2), the first also-eligible. Fourth in a $15,000 claiming sprint at Turfway two weeks ago, Escape Fund looms as a key contender while dropping in class. But he’ll need a scratch from the main body of the field in order to compete.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 6,9,13 with 3,6,9,13 with 3,6,7,9,13 with 3,6,7,9,13 ($54)

Good luck!