Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, March 1 at Fair Grounds and Sunland Park, including a longshot to play in Sunland’s $4,031 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Parx Racing. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $30,000 Starter Allowance (one mile, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#9 Colonelsdarktemper (7-2) was a force to reckon with in 2021, winning four of his five starts by daylight margins. His lone defeat came in a graded stakes, and he ended the year with a gate-to-wire win in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs.

Having posted a pair of triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings last year, Colonelsdarktemper is the fastest horse on paper in this $30,000 starter allowance. He hasn’t run since September, but trainer Joe Sharp wins at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and jockey Brian Hernandez has gone 2-for-4 (50%) teaming up with Sharp over the last two months.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Colonelsdarktemper, then key him over #2 Intrepid Heart (3-1) and #5 My Bariley (6-1) in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #9 Colonelsdarktemper
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 2,5 ($10)
  Total: $20

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Mardi Gras S. (about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#4 Elle Z (9-5) and #5 Change of Control (2-1) were separated by a nose when running 1-2 in the Frederick P. Aime Memorial S. over this course and distance last month. The two mares look difficult to split on Tuesday, so why not try to beat them both with #8 Goin’ Good (6-1)?

Goin’ Good showed plenty of promise for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox last season. She won the 5 1/2-furlong Coronation Cup at Saratoga, in addition to placing in the Limestone Turf Sprint and Dixie Belle S. Along the way, Goin' Good put up a quartet of 90+ Brisnet Speed ratings, including a 98 when nabbing a 5 1/2-furlong turf allowance at Churchill Downs.

Cox wins at an excellent 23% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and jockey Marcelino Pedroza (a 29% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months) is named to ride. If Goin’ Good steps forward in her four-year-old debut, she can vie for victory at a nice price.

Continuing along with the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Goin’ Good. Then we’ll key her over Elle Z and Change of Control in the exacta and trifecta.

• $10 to win on #8 Goin’ Good
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 4,5 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 8 with 4,5 with 4,5 ($5)
  Total: $25

Fair Grounds: Race 9: Allowance (one mile, 6:07 p.m. ET)

Triple Crown nominee #7 More Memories (9-2) is dropping in class after finishing third in the LA Bred Premier Prince S. over the bullring track at Delta Downs. The strength of that race was indicated when the winner returned to win another stakes three weeks later.

Shifting back to the larger racing oval at Fair Grounds should benefit More Memories. Two starts back, the gray colt won a one-mile allowance at Fair Grounds by 2 1/2 lengths, employing pace-tracking tactics on his way to a flashy 89 Brisnet Speed rating.

A return to this level of form can send More Memories to the winner’s circle under apprentice jockey Rene Diaz, who has won at a 28% rate when teaming up with hot trainer Tom Amoss over the last two months.

Completing our trio of Midweek Bet Back plays, we’ll place a $10 win bet on More Memories. Then we’ll play him over #2 Martinized (7-2) and #11 Drilling Report (6-1) in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #7 More Memories
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 2,11 ($10)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 5: $4,031 Pick 5 carryover (4:09 p.m. ET)

Favorites struggled at Sunland Park last Sunday, with only one managing to visit the winner’s circle. It’s not like the results were shocking; to the contrary, every winner started at single-digit odds. But the Pick 5 sequence featured a couple of 7-1 winners plus a 9-1 surprise, and when the dust settled, not a single bettor had constructed a winning ticket.

As a result, there’s a $4,031 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs on Tuesday at Sunland Park. Assembling the winning combination won’t be easy; the five races have drawn a total of 43 entries (averaging 8.6 per race), which equates to 44,800 possible outcomes. But if the Pick 5 goes unclaimed again, there will be consolation payoffs awarded to bettors who select the highest number of winners, so there’s a chance you’ll get paid even if your ticket comes up short.

Sunday’s results suggest thinking outside the box is a fair strategy for Sunland Park, so we’ll follow suit on Tuesday. One of the most intriguing legs of the sequence is Race 6, a $6,500 maiden claimer for New Mexico-bred sophomore fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. A field of 10 has been entered, with midrange longshot #7 Ts Queen of Sass (8-1) ranking as a highly appealing win candidate.

Ts Queen of Sass isn’t the field’s fastest entrant in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, but her numbers are solid, and she’s been posting them against tougher competition at Sunland. On Dec. 31, Ts Queen of Sass ran third in a maiden special weight against males. On Jan. 8, she finished fourth in a $12,500 maiden claimer. On Jan. 28, she returned to maiden special weight company and ran third before finishing fourth in a similar heat on Feb. 18.

Ts Queen of Sass is versatile in terms of running style and figures to sit a favorable trip under hot jockey Rigo Sarmiento, who has gone 7-for-19 (37%) at Sunland since Feb. 15.

Taking all of these factors together, Ts Queen of Sass looks formidable at a solid price. Pick 5 players might want to include morning line favorite #8 Kate’s Warrior (3-1) as backup, since Kate’s Warrior posted a sharp 72 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing third in a $12,500 maiden claimer on Jan. 4 at Sunland. But Ts Queen of Sass definitely has upset potential if she brings her A-game, and if you feel like taking a stand with Ts Queen of Sass as a single… well, we won’t talk you out of it.

Good luck!