Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, March 2 at Turfway Park, along with horses to single in Sam Houston’s $12,648 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong) or Kempton Park (UK).

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:15 p.m. ET)

The unraced #8 Strange Arrange (5-2) is the morning line favorite for trainer Wesley Ward, who wins at a 32% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. But Ward’s first-time starters have been a bit quieter than usual at Turfway this winter, going 1-for-11.

Let’s try to beat Strange Arrange with #9 Jack Be Nimble (4-1). The four-year-old gelding ran third in a $30,000-$20,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turfway on Dec. 30, earning a career-best 71 Brisnet Speed rating. Jack Be Nimble ranks among the fastest of the experienced runners in Wednesday’s field, and dropping in class might be all he needs to deliver a victory.

Capitalizing on the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Jack Be Nimble. Then we’ll key him over Strange Arrange and #5 Yankee Mischief (7-2) in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #9 Jack Be Nimble
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 5,8 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 3: $12,500 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#1 Christian C (3-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last seven starts, winning four times while competing on turf and dirt. The nine-year-old gelding was last seen running second (with a sharp 87 Brisnet Speed rating) in a $13,500 starter optional claimer over 1 1/8 miles at Hawthorne.

Christian C’s record over synthetic footing stands at a solid 13-4-2-3, so switching to Tapeta at Turfway shouldn’t be an issue. Trainer Michael Reavis wins at a 24% rate in claiming races, and the rail post is producing 17% winners over one mile at Turfway. With all these factors in Christian C’s favor, he looms as a logical win choice.

#4 Can’t Hide From Me (8-5) and #7 Tomahawk Kitten (15-1) are worth including in the exacta, but our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Christian C, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

• $10 to win on #1 Christian C
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4,7 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

#2 Ibrim (3-1) is another first-time starter from the barn of Wesley Ward, but as we noted previously, Ward’s debuting runners haven’t had the best luck at Turfway this winter.

If you wish to oppose Ibrim, #6 Fireman Dan (4-1) is a logical alternative. The bay gelding has competed twice against $30,000 maiden claiming company at Turfway, cracking the trifecta both times. On Jan. 2, he rallied boldly to finish second by a head in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint. Then on Feb. 11, he stretched out over one mile and finished third, with next-out winner Quick Master among his conquerors.

We’ll bet Fireman Dan to win, then key him over Ibrim and the class-dropping #8 Brawndo (6-1) in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #6 Fireman Dan
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2,8 ($10)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Sam Houston, Race 4: $12,648 Pick 6 carryover (6:25 p.m. ET)

If you like the low minimum bet amounts offered by jackpot-style Pick 6 wagers, but prefer the wagering value offered by non-jackpot options, then the Space City Pick 6 at Sam Houston is a wager you need to play.

The Space City Pick 6 features an affordable 50-cent minimum bet amount, allowing you to play more combinations on a smaller budget than $1 or $2 Pick 6 wagers. But the Space City Pick 6 is a traditional non-jackpot wager, so you won’t have to construct a unique winning ticket to land a share of Wednesday’s $12,648 carryover.

If you’re planning to chase the Space City Pick 6 carryover, we’re here to help with a pair of suggested singles to bookend the six-race sequence.

Race 4: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming: #5 Lady Ave (4-5)

Under the care of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Lady Ave has won seven of her last eight starts while consistently putting up Brisnet Speed ratings in the 86-90 range. She’s been especially sharp at Sam Houston this year, wiring a 5 1/2-furlong sprint over this class level by six lengths before cruising by four lengths in a six-furlong allowance.

Lady Ave will stretch out over seven furlongs on Wednesday, but that shouldn’t be an issue since she’s 1-for-1 over this trip. She has an abundance of tactical speed and owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in the field, so Lady Ave figures to win again at a short price.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight: #8 Wilburnsclassylady (6-5)

This one-mile turf test for Texas-bred sophomore fillies hasn’t drawn the deepest field on paper, so Wilburnsclassylady looms as a potential standout.

Unlike many of her rivals, Wilburnsclassylady has already run well on turf. In an unrestricted maiden special weight for fillies last summer, Wilburnsclassylady ran fourth in a large field. Then on Jan. 27—in her first start off a long layoff—Wilburnsclassylady produced a big rally to finish second by half a length in a one-mile maiden special weight for Texas-breds. Fillies ran 1-2-3, but the race was open to males.

Wilburnsclassylady has already defeated key rival #3 Cold Night Air (3-1), so if she brings her A-game in her second start of the season, Wilburnsclassylady can win for fun as a short-priced Pick 6 single.

Good luck!