Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 3 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $2,335 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Turfway Park $2,500 Jackpot Thursdays: Place $10+ win bets at Turfway Park for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Thursday Pick 5 Winsurance: Play the early Pick 5 at Woodbine Mohawk and receive a Winsurance refund of 25% (up to $25 total) if your ticket fails to win. Offer applies to your first Pick 5 wager that meets or exceeds $24 in cost.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 4:05 p.m. ET)

In a race where most of the entrants have been beaten on multiple occasions, #2 Its Wild Again (9-2) offers appeal as a relatively fresh face. The son of Flashback has only run once, overcoming a slow start to rally and finish third in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds.

This effort produced a competitive 69 Brisnet Speed rating, and Its Wild Again will stick to the same class level while stretching out in distance for his second start. If he breaks cleanly and handles the longer trip, Its Wild Again can spring a mild surprise for hot trainer Ron Faucheux.

#1 Chief Kimosabi (4-1) and #4 Bouldering (5-2) can battle for exacta honors. But our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Its Wild Again, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

• $10 to win on #2 Its Wild Again
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,4 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 5: $15,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

In a race containing barely any early speed at all, #5 Ivorysgoldtreasure (5-2) looks tough to beat. The five-year-old mare ran a big race in her Tapeta debut over this track, distance, and class level last month, dueling for the lead before battling to finish second by a neck.

This effort produced a strong 80 Brisnet Speed rating, and Ivorysgoldtreasure should have every chance to repeat that number on Thursday. She figures to secure a perfect trip setting a slow pace under jockey Joseph Ramos, who has gone 3-for-8 (38%) teaming up with hot trainer Randy Klopp over the last two months.

#8 Yes I’s a Miller (8-1) can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #5 Ivorysgoldtreasure
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 8
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: $8,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:46 p.m. ET)

#1A Seaward (10-1) has come to hand impressively at Turfway Park this winter. The daughter of Mizzen Mast enters off back-to-back wins racing one mile at Turfway, employing pace-tracking tactics to win at the $7,500 and $5,000 levels.

Seaward is stepping up against tougher company, but her hot form and clear affinity for the Turfway Tapeta are appealing factors in her favor. At 10-1, she’s worth betting to win and playing in the exacta with favorites #5 Moonlight Rain (2-1) and #7 Redhot Katie (3-1).

• $20 to win on #1 Seaward
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $2,335 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

It’s hard to describe any of Turfway Park’s $1 Super High 5 offerings as easy to handicap. But compared to Turfway’s usual difficult standard, Thursday’s Super High 5 looks (slightly) easier to manage.

The bet is available to play in Race 8, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is one mile on Tapeta, and only 11 horses have been entered, rather than a full field of 12. Throw in the fact two of the runners are coupled in the wagering, and there are only 10 betting interests to consider, which equates to 30,240 possible outcomes—a good deal less than the 95,040 involved when 12 betting interests are on the table.

This is good news for bettors keen to chase Thursday’s $2,335 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway, because it makes constructing a winning ticket on a reasonable budget more feasible.

We’ll kick things off by keying #10 Machisima (4-1) on top. Drawing the outside post is a bit concerning, but Machisima has run well multiple times over the $5,000 level at Turfway this winter and brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table.

Machisima ran particularly well over this distance and class level on Feb. 19, unleashing an early rally to seize a daylight lead before faltering late to finish third by one length. If she times her rally a bit better on Thursday, Machisima will have every opportunity to produce a winning effort.

Underneath Machisima, morning line favorite #3 Europa (3-1) is a logical filly to emphasize. She failed to challenge in a $7,500 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway last month, but two previous two starts (both over one mile) produced runner-up efforts at the $5,000 and $7,500 levels.

#7 Tami Ann (9-2) can’t be dismissed either. She hasn’t missed the board in three starts over the $5,000 level at Turfway this winter, even coming home a nose ahead of Machisima when finishing second on Feb. 19.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 3,7 with 3,7 with 5,6,9 with 2,4,5,6,9 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 3,7 with 5,6,9 with 3,7 with 2,4,5,6,9 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!