Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 4 at Turf Paradise and Turfway Park, along with a pair of suggested singles for the $52,581 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Dundalk (Ireland).
• $15,000 Australian Autumn Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at a select Australian track (this week, Randwick) for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot. Promotion runs every Friday from March 4 through April 8.

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise Race 2: Cactus Wren S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:20 p.m. ET)

#6 Hey Pilgrim (2-1) may have been defeated in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Turf Paradise last time out, finishing third by five lengths. But Hey Pilgrim had previously won four consecutive races, including the Saguaro S. sprinting six furlongs against Arizona-breds at Turf Paradise.

In the Saguaro, Hey Pilgrim tracked a hot pace before taking command to win by a neck over Annie’s Boy, who has since won two stakes. Finishing a distant third was #4 Ramblin’ Man (6-5), the morning line favorite in the Cactus Wren after rattling off back-to-back allowance optional claiming wins at Turf Paradise.

If Hey Pilgrim bounces back to peak form while returning to the Arizona-bred stakes ranks, he can spring a mild upset over Ramblin’ Man and #1 Mystic Reality (6-1). We’ll play exacta and trifecta wagers accordingly.

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 4
• $10 Trifecta: 6 with 4 with 1
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 3: Cactus Flower S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

How good is #2 Foundation (2-1)? There’s no way to know yet. The four-year-old filly is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts against easier company at Turf Paradise, dominating a $30,000 maiden optional claimer by nine lengths before trouncing a $12,500 allowance optional claimer by three lengths.

Foundation brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the Cactus Flower and has the speed to be prominent from the outset. She still has upside for improvement, so let’s bet Foundation over proven stakes star #5 Arizona Sun (9-5) in a large exacta.

• $30 Exacta: 2 with 5

Turfway Park: Race 3: $30,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#2 Derby House (3-1) is stepping up in class, but the son of Candy Ride clearly has an affinity for the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway. On Dec. 2, he unleashed a giant rally to smash a $30,000 maiden claiming sprint by 5 1/2 lengths. Then—after misfiring without an obvious excuse in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer—Derby House tackled a $15,000 claiming sprint on Feb. 12 at Turfway, which he smashed by five lengths.

The latter victory produced an 88 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest figures in Friday’s field. Turfway’s leading jockey Gerardo Corrales retains the mount, so if Derby House produces a peak effort while stretching out over one mile, he can shrug off the class jump and beat #6 Sliabh Aughty (7-2) and #7 Nepal Up (4-1) to the finish line.

One of our plays will be a $10 cold exacta keying Derby House over Sliabh Aughty, in order to capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

• $18 to win on #2 Derby House
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 6
• $2 Trifecta: 2 with 6 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 3: $52,581 Pick 6 carryover (2:22 p.m. ET)

You can bet many handicappers are already looking ahead to Saturday’s action-packed afternoon of stakes racing from coast to coast. But we would be remiss for skimming over the Friday card at Aqueduct, which features a lucrative $52,581 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

On paper, the Pick 6 looks manageable to play on a modest budget. The sequence contains only 40 entries (averaging 6.7 per race) and 84,672 possible outcomes, a modest number considering some Pick 6s have millions of possible outcomes.

We can simplify Friday’s Pick 6 even further if we can identify a single or two across the sequence. To that end, here are a couple of Pick 6 entrants who look like potential single candidates in their respective races:

Race 4: $50,000 Starter Allowance: #5 Norman Queen (9-5)

A lightly raced four-year-old with only three starts under her belt, Norman Queen has shown promising form at Aqueduct this winter. On Jan. 13, she wired a six-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds, carving out a quick pace before powering clear to win by 11 1/2 lengths. Then on Feb. 4, Norman Queen just barely failed to wire a $50,000 starter allowance over seven furlongs, finishing second by three-quarters of a length after leading by three lengths at the furlong marker.

Norman Queen is sticking to the same class level on Friday, but she’s cutting back to six furlongs, which should be enough to trigger a winning effort. She brings a couple of 90+ Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and has the hot jockey/trainer duo of Andre Worrie and Jeffrey Englehart in her corner, stamping Norman Queen as a logical single in a small field.

Race 5: Allowance: #5 Winter Pool (3-5)

Not every horse relishes racing 1 1/8 miles, but the distance is clearly a strong suit for Winter Pool. A stoutly bred son of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare, Winter Pool boasts a solid 3-1-2-0 record over 1 1/8 miles, including a stretch-running maiden victory at Saratoga last summer.

Winter Pool fired off a sharp effort over this distance at Aqueduct two months, ago, charging from the back of the pack to finish second in an allowance. He’ll stick to the same conditions on Friday while picking up jockey Manny Franco, who has gone 6-for-11 (55%) teaming up with hot trainer Chad Brown (a 32% winner at Aqueduct) over the last two months. With strong form and powerful stats in his corner, Winter Pool looks tough to beat.

Good luck!