Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 8

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, March 8 at Parx Racing, Turf Paradise, and Sunland Park, including tickets for Sunland’s $758 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise: Race 1: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Shooting (2-1) is the morning line favorite while shipping in from Gulfstream Park, where he was last seen finishing third in a $35,000 claimer over one mile. But Shooting hasn’t run in nearly a year, and he’s only posted three official workouts in preparation for his return. Dropping in class is bound to help his chances, but will Shooting be sharp enough to deliver a winning effort off the layoff?

We’ll try to beat Shooting with #2 Eight Maker (7-2). Formerly based in Southern California, Eight Maker hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts since arriving at Turf Paradise, including a pair of sprints over this class level. Tuesday’s test will mark Eight Maker’s first start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro, a 30% winner at Turf Paradise this meet and a 25% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

• $20 to win on #2 Eight Maker
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 9: Rittenhouse Square S. (six furlongs, 4:43 p.m. ET)

#3 Dance Code (7-2) showed promising form as a juvenile, wiring the seven-furlong Parx Juvenile S. over this track and placing in the Sanford S. (G3) at Saratoga. Along the way, he put forth a pair of 80+ Brisnet Speed ratings.

Dance Code suffered a slow start when fourth in Aqueduct’s Jimmy Winkfield S. to kick off 2022, but the caliber of competition was strong—the victorious Morello and runner-up Life Is Great returned to run first and fourth in the Gotham S. (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby last week. Squaring off against easier company at Parx might be all Dance Code needs to return to the winner’s circle.

#4 Uncaptured Spirit (6-1) and #5 Scaramouche (5-1) can battle for exacta honors. But our first play will be a $10 win bet on Dance Code, in order to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

• $10 to win on #3 Dance Code
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4,5 ($10)
  Total: $20

Parx Racing: Race 10: City of Brotherly Love S. (1 1/16 miles, 5:14 p.m. ET)

#4 Courvoisier (3-1) and #3 Smarten Up (4-1) ran 1-2 in Aqueduct's one-mile Jerome S. on New Year's Day, an outcome that figures to stamp Courvoisier as the favorite in the City of Brotherly Love.

But the Jerome took place around one turn, while the City of Brotherly Love is a two-turn event. This could potentially play to the strengths of Smarten Up. In the Feb. 5 Withers S. (G3) racing two turns at Aqueduct, Smarten Up managed to turn the tables on Courvoisier, finishing sixth while Courvoisier came home three lengths back in seventh place.

Smarten Up broke his maiden by nine lengths racing two turns at Parx, and returning to this track can help the chestnut colt maintain his edge over Courvoisier. We'll play a cold exacta accordingly. 

• $30 Exacta: 3 with 4

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park, Race 10: $758 Super High 5 carryover (6:26 p.m. ET)

The $758 Super High 5 carryover at Sunland Park might not be the largest prize pool on the afternoon agenda. But since it’s the only non-jackpot option on the table, it’s worth a look, especially since the 50-cent wager awards consolation payoffs in the event no one assembles a winning ticket.

The Super High 5 is up for grabs in Race 10, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for New Mexico-bred three-year-olds. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this track, distance, and class level is a 73, but none of the experienced runners have come close to achieving that figure.

As a result, we’ll focus our attention on a pair of first-time starters: #4 Bear Claw (8-1) and #8 Style Bender (10-1). Both are conditioned by high-percentage trainer Todd Fincher, who has compiled a stellar 8-for-23 (35%) debuting horses at Sunland since 2018.

Of the pair, Bear Claw is arguably the more enticing contender—his work tab is flashy, highlighted by a bullet half mile in :47 1/5 at Sunland. But we can’t dismiss Style Bender from consideration. Sire Attila’s Storm is responsible for a solid 17% winners from first-time starters, while dam Fritzie’s Chime previously foaled the stakes-winning sprinter Fritzies Flame. Throw in the fact Style Bender will be ridden by Alfredo Sigala (a 31% winner teaming up with Fincher over the last two months), and the chestnut gelding offers a lot of appeal.

So why don’t we count on either Bear Claw or Style Bender to emerge victorious, with the other finishing in the top four? That will allow us to spread a bit deeper underneath.

For example, we’ll use #1 Right On Time (3-1), #7 I Am the Juan (5-1), and #10 American Solo (4-1) in equal strength for the minor awards. All have posted competitive efforts over this track and class level while posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 64-65 range.

We’ll round out the bottoms of our tickets with #5 Go for the Laugh (8-1) and #6 B R Kidd Rock (12-1).

• 50-cent Super High 5: 4,8 with 4,8 with 1,7,10 with 1,7,10 with 1,5,6,7,10 ($18)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 4,8 with 1,7,10 with 4,8 with 1,7,10 with 1,5,6,7,10 ($18)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 4,8 with 1,7,10 with 1,7,10 with 4,8 with 1,5,6,7,10 ($18)
  Total: $54

Good luck!