Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 9

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, March 9 at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, along with suggested singles for the mandatory-payout $505,293 Pick 5 carryover at Parx Racing.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (five furlongs on turf, 4:09 p.m. ET)

#5 Sayyaaf (7-5) is 2-for-2 this year, posting gate-to-wire wins in a $35,000 claimer and a $25,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting five furlongs over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track. These efforts produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 88 and 89, the highest recent figures in Wednesday’s field.

Sayyaaf is 3-for-5 over the Gulfstream Park turf course, so switching surfaces shouldn’t be an issue. Trainer Mike Maker and jockey Javier Castellano have been hot together over the last two months, going 3-for-12 (25%), so we’ll confidently bet Sayyaaf to win and key him over #2 Breakthrough (6-1) in the exacta.

• $30 to win on #5 Sayyaaf
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $40

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Tejano Twist (2-1) was last seen finishing second in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner S. on Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, beaten only by future Risen Star S. (G2) winner Epicenter. This was a gallant effort, but sprinting is arguably Tejano Twist’s strong suit—two starts back, he won the 6 1/2-furlong Lively Shively S. at Churchill Downs over a quality field including future Southwest S. (G3) runner-up Barber Road.

Tejano Twist’s last three sprint starts have yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 93, 94, and 94, so cutting back in distance should be all Tejano Twist needs to defeat Sugar Bowl S. winner #2 Chattalot (3-1) to the finish line.

• $25 to win on #4 Tejano Twist
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $35

Turfway Park: Race 3: $30,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#1 Mine Own Star (4-1) ran well in his local debut over this distance and class level on Dec. 30. After settling in midpack, Mine Own Star unleashed a strong early bid to reach contention, then battled on gamely to finish second by less than a length with a solid 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

A wide trip was detrimental to Mine Own Star’s chances, so breaking from the rail on Wednesday should help Mine Own Star step forward and deliver a victory. After all, post 1 produces an excellent 17% winners in one-mile races at Turfway.

#3 Lavender Earl (5-2) and #6 Upstart Gentleman (7-2) have the credentials to vie for a place in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #1 Mine Own Star
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 3,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Parx Racing, Race 7: $505,293 Pick 5 mandatory payout (3:46 p.m. ET)

Midweek dispersals of six-figure jackpot carryovers don’t happen every week, so bettors are encouraged to check out Wednesday’s Philly Big 5 sequence at Parx Racing. The 50-cent Pick 5 wager boasts a massive jackpot worth $505,293, and Wednesday is the day it’s slated for mandatory dispersal among all winning ticketholders.

If you’re planning to play along, we’ve analyzed the sequence and identified a pair of potential singles to build tickets around:

Race 8: $8,000 Starter Handicap (one mile and 70 yards): #10 Miss Dillingham (2-1)

Since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness (a 29% winner at Parx this meet), Miss Dillingham has been formidable. Her last three starts against $8,000 starter allowance company have produced three victories with excellent Brisnet Speed ratings of 92, 93, and 94.

None of Miss Dillingham’s Wednesday rivals have been running as fast, so a typical performance from the morning line favorite should deliver a short-priced victory. The presence of hot jockey Ruben Silvera (a 22% winner at Parx) further adds to the appeal.

Race 9: $8,000 Starter Handicap (1 1/16 miles): #7 Exit Right (2-1)

Assuming Jamie Ness and Ruben Silvera team up to win Race 8 with Miss Dillingham, they’ll have every chance to nab a quick double with Exit Right in this starter handicap.

Speed is the name of the game for Exit Right, who typically sets the pace. On Jan. 17, he led by daylight at every call of an $8,000 claimer at Parx, ultimately drawing off to win by 14 1/4 lengths with a 97 Brisnet Speed rating. He was just as sharp in an $8,000 starter allowance on Feb. 7, again leading by daylight all the way to score by 4 3/4 lengths with a 98 Brisnet Speed rating.

Both of these wins came over off tracks, and with rain in the forecast for Wednesday at Parx, Exit Right figures to encounter favorable footing again. Exit Right signaled his sharpness with a quick half-mile workout in :47 3/5 one week ago at Parx, so all signs suggest he’s poised to record a third straight victory.

Turfway Park, Race 8: $2,024 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

In addition to the action at Parx, handicappers are advised to check out the $2,024 carryover on the table in Turfway Park’s $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available in Race 8, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on Tapeta. With only nine horses in the entries, the wager features 15,120 possible outcomes, significantly fewer than the 95,040 possibilities to ponder when Turfway assembles 12 horses for a Super High 5 race.

There are plenty of logical contenders in the mix, but we’ll focus our attention on #7 Mommy Berta (4-1). The four-year-old filly has been competing against tougher company at Turfway this winter, most notably running second in a $7,500 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. Dropping down in class and stepping up in distance can trigger a competitive showing from Mommy Berta; after all, she’s twice won running one mile on turf at Indiana Grand, including a gate-to-wire score in a $12,500 claimer.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,5 with 3,5 with 2,6,8 with 1,2,6,8,9 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,5 with 2,6,8 with 3,5 with 1,2,6,8,9 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!