Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Oct. 26

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $50 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 26 at Parx and Indiana Grand, along with tickets for the mandatory-payout $17,606 Super High 5 carryover at Fort Erie.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx and Indiana Grand.

Picks and plays

Parx, Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 12:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Ultimate Dare (4-1) looks like a live candidate to win on debut in this maiden dash for juveniles. 

Trained by John Servis (a 25% winner this meet), Ultimate Dare is a son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Daredevil, out of Adorabell. The latter has already produced two juvenile winners from three starters.

Ultimate Dare has shown speed in the mornings and blazed a bullet five furlongs from the Parx starting gate in :59 2/5.

Jockey Frankie Pennington (a 29% winner when he teams with Servis) is named to ride, which suggests Ultimate Dare is a solid play at 4-1.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win wager on Ultimate Dare. Then we’ll add an exacta, with #1 That’s Right (3-1) for second place.

$10 to win on #3 Ultimate Dare
$5 exacta: 3 with 1
Total: $15

Indiana Grand, Race 6: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 5 p.m. ET)

Trainer Brad Cox has enjoyed strong success with experienced juveniles at Indiana Grand this year, with seven wins from 19 starts (37%). This powerful stat bodes well for the chances of Cox’s promising two-year-old filly, #6 Abuela’s Humor (9-5).

Abuela’s Humor ran strongly in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Indiana Grand last month, when she rallied from midfield to finish second, for a respectable 67 Brisnet Speed rating. She come back to post three quick workouts at Indiana Grand and should be tough to beat under jockey Fernando De La Cruz, a 36% winner when he teams with Cox.

For with the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Abuela’s Humor. Then we’ll play her over the consistent #2 Optionality (9-2) in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #6 Abuela’s Humor
$5 exacta: 6 with 2
Total: $15

Indiana Grand, Race 7: $25,000 claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 5:31 p.m. ET)

#5 Joy of Treasure (2-1) failed to fire her best shot in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon S. last month, but the daughter of Kitten’s Joy stepped up in class and stretched out over 1 5/16 miles, a couple of significant challenges.

The conditions of Tuesday’s $25,000 claimer should be more suitable for Joy of Treasure. Not only is the competition easier, but the distance and switch to dirt should be more manageable. Two starts back, Joy of Treasure finished second in a $40,000 optional-claiming allowance at one mile over the Ellis Park main track and earned a 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

We’ll complete our trio of Midweek Bet Back plays with a $10 win wager on Joy of Treasure. Then we’ll add an exacta, with #3 My Girl Lexi (4-1) and #4 Addison (3-1) for second place.

$10 to win on #5 Joy of Treasure
$5 exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($10)
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Fort Erie, Race 10: $17,606 Super High 5 mandatory payout (5:12 p.m. ET)

One of the most intriguing handicapping challenges this afternoon comes at Fort Erie.

Tuesday is closing day of the meet, which means the CAN$21,789 (US$ 17,606) carryover in the 20-cent Jackpot Hi-5 is slated for mandatory dispersal in Race 10, a $12,500 optional-claiming starter allowance held over the unusual distance of two miles and 70 yards.

Since the 11 entrants have all run much shorter races lately, handicapping Race 10 is challenging. It’s hard to predict which horses will appreciate the extended distance, though pedigrees can provide some clues.

We have to give a long look to #4 The Mighty Judge (6-1). He is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, a noted stamina influence at stud. The Mighty Judge showed some staying power when he dominated a one-mile and 70-yard event at this track and class level Sept. 27, when he drew clear down the stretch to win by 6 3/4 lengths. The 85 Brisnet Speed rating he posted was excellent, as was his 99 Brisnet Late Pace rating.

The four-year-old filly #11 Classy Mistress (10-1) is another to respect. Sire Bodemeister finished second in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1) and sired 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming from his first crop of foals. Bodemeister’s progeny win at an average distance of 7.1 furlongs. Classy Mistress is undefeated in two starts running long on dirt and most recently smashed a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Fort Erie by 16 1/2 lengths. Her reward was a career-best 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

The longshot #9 World of Prospects (15-1) can’t be counted out, either. He won a starter allowance at this track and distance in 2018 and came in second in a similar event last fall, so we know he can handle long trips. If you’re willing to forgive his modest recent form, World of Prospects offers appeal from an experience perspective.

Let’s key The Mighty Judge on top in the Super High 5, emphasize Classy Mistress underneath, and spread deep for the remaining slots.

20-cent Super High 5: 4 with 11 with 1,2,6,9,10 with 1,2,3,6,8,9,10 with 1,2,3,6,8,9,10 ($30)
20-cent Super High 5: 4 with 1,2,6,9,10 with 11 with 1,2,3,6,8,9,10 with 1,2,3,6,8,9,10 ($30)
Total: $60

Good luck!