Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Oct. 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 27 at Keeneland and Indiana Grand, along with a ticket for Keeneland’s $20,051 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Indiana Grand and Remington Park.
• Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Keeneland.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Sha Tin (Hong Kong).

Picks and plays

Keeneland, Race 2: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 1:32 p.m. ET)

In a field stacked almost exclusively with first-time starters, #1 Circle Back Jack (3-1) — the only experienced runner in the entries — might be the most likely winner.

Circle Back Jack has shown talent and consistency in his first three starts on turf and has cracked the trifecta every time. He ran especially well in the 5 1/2-furlong Indian Summer S. at Keeneland earlier this month, when he gained ground late to finish third, behind undefeated, three-time stakes winner Averly Jane.

As a son of Belmont S. (G1) winner Tonalist, out of a mare by Medaglia d’Oro, Circle Back Jack is bred to thrive on dirt. And thanks to the Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back promotion, we can place a $10 win bet on Circle Back Jack and receive a refund if he finishes second or third.

#8 All in Sync (8-1) can complete the exacta.

$10 to win on #1 Circle Back Jack
$5 exacta: 1 with 8
Total: $15

Indiana Grand, Race 6: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 5 p.m. ET)

#7 More Approval (7-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in her first three starts at this track and class level, and she put up Brisnet Speed ratings of 56, 55, and 62. Two starts back, she finished third in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, beaten a half-length by #2 Z’s Lucky Girl (9-5) for the runner-up spot.

But on that occasion, More Approval ran into traffic and was compromised by a slow pace. In a six-furlong sprint Oct. 4, More Approval encountered a quicker tempo and finished second, 2 1/4 lengths ahead of Z’s Lucky Girl.

There appears to be ample pace in Wednesday’s maiden heat, so we’ll bet More Approval to win (to take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion) and key her over Z’s Lucky Girl in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #7 More Approval
$10 exacta: 7 with 2
Total: $20

Indiana Grand, Race 7: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 5:31 p.m. ET)

#8 Lil Evie (6-5) has finished second in her last two starts at this track and class level, and she posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 67 and 62. Considering none of her rivals have posted a figure better than 59, it’s safe to say Lil Evie is the fastest filly on paper.

Lil Evie has some tactical speed and has drawn an outside post, which sets the stage for a clean trip, off a modest pace.

We’ll definitely place a $10 win bet on Lil Evie, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion. #4 Gio’s Baby Girl (9-2), runner-up in her first two starts sprinting against maiden special weight company at Indiana Grand, can complete the exacta.

$10 to win on #8 Lil Evie
$5 exacta: 8 with 4
Total: $15

Carryover watch

Keeneland, Race 8: $20,051 Super High 5 carryover (5:12 p.m. ET)

Who’s ready to chase a Keeneland carryover?

The final race Wednesday is a $150,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies at 6 1/2 furlongs. If you’re able to assemble the top five finishers in the $1 Super High 5, you’ll win your share of a $20,051 carryover.

The morning-line favorite — and certainly a viable contender for victory — is #6 Malibu Marie (7-2).

The Brad Cox trainee finished third in her debut, a six-furlong sprint against maiden special weight company at Ellis Park, and earned a 74 Brisnet Speed rating. If you forgive Malibu Marie’s subsequent, fifth-place finish in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, her form looks solid, and Cox wins at a 30% rate with horses who drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

But don’t sleep on the chances of #7 Triple P (4-1).

The daughter of champion juvenile Classic Empire ran second in her debut, a $50,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs last month, when she posted a 76 Brisnet Speed rating, even after she pressed quick early fractions. Trainer Steve Margolis isn’t known for saddling debut winners (his last came in 2015), but his 13% strike rate with second-time starters is solid. We should see a sharper effort from Triple P in her second run under colors.

#10 Abstract Moment (10-1), runner-up in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Kentucky Downs turf course, is eligible to fire a competitive effort on the drop in class and switch in surface. As a daughter of Belmont winner Tonalist, she has the potential to handle dirt.

#11 Miracle Mischief (5-1), a daughter of two-time leading sire Into Mischief, is also eligible to improve on the transition from turf to dirt. She never really threatened when she came in eighth in her debut, a 5 1/2-furlong sprint over the Saratoga lawn, but the race in question was a maiden special weight, and Miracle Mischief still managed to post a respectable 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

Toward the bottom of our tickets, we’ll include the coupled entrymates #1 Howboutdemapples (6-1) and #1A Vow (6-1). The former placed against maiden special weight company at Ellis Park during the summer, while the latter (technically on the also-eligible list) is a first-time starter from the barn of Al Stall, who strikes at a 16% rate with debut runners.

Here is how we’ll play the Super High 5.

$1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 6,7 with 10,11 with 1,10,11 with 1,2,8,10,11,13 ($32)
$1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 10,11 with 6,7 with 1,10,11 with 1,2,8,10,11,13 ($32)
Total: $64

Good luck!