Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Oct. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $50 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 28 at Belmont Park and Keeneland, including win bets to capitalize on a pair of TwinSpires promotions.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Belmont Park and Woodbine.
• Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Keeneland.
• $16,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Make a winning early Pick 4 wager at Hoosier Park to win a share of $1,000. Offer applies to the early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) at Hoosier Park every Thursday from Aug. 19 through Dec. 2.

Picks and plays

Keeneland, Race 6: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:40 p.m. ET)

In this competitive field of female sprinters, we’ll take a shot with #9 Elle Z (4-1).

A pure pacesetter, who hasn’t been headed during the first two calls of her last nine starts, the daughter of City Zip has won or placed four times at the stakes level, even though she switched from dirt to turf and back again.

Elle Z doesn’t appear to appreciate much give the ground, so the rain in the forecast for Keeneland is concerning. But if this race is transferred to the main track, Elle Z will be a viable win threat. She has three wins from four starts on dirt and has won both of her attempts in races rained off the turf.

To capitalize on the Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Elle Z. Three-time turf stakes winner #3 Alms (7-2) or consistent dirt competitor #13 Palace Avenger (3-1) can complete the exacta, depending on whether this race is run on turf or dirt.

$10 to win on #9 Elle Z
$5 exacta: 9 with 3,13 ($10)
Total: $20

Keeneland, Race 7: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 4:12 p.m. ET)

Trainer Nick Zito isn’t known for cranking his runners to win on debut, and he hasn’t saddled a winning first-time starter since 2014. That’s why I’m inclined to view the first start from Zito’s #3 Atlantic Dancer (8-1) in a positive light.

Atlantic Dancer was dismissed at 15-1 in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont last month, yet the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ran evenly to finish fifth. He was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths by the winner and gained a couple lengths down the homestretch.

Atlantic Dancer has since breezed a rapid half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 4/5, which suggests he can produce a sharper effort in his second start under colors.

Let’s bet Atlantic Dancer to win and call it a day.

$15 to win on #3 Atlantic Dancer

Belmont Park, Race 9: Maiden special weight (one mile, 4:52 p.m. ET)

In a field that contains little speed on paper, #9 B C Glory Days (7-2) offers appeal.

The son of Brody’s Cause is winless in six starts, and his two most recent runs have produced off-the-board results, but B C Glory Days has made his last three starts on turf. He is eligible to rebound on the switch to dirt.

B C Glory Days cracked the trifecta in three straight dirt races to kick off his career, including a couple one-mile maiden special weights at Aqueduct. Along the way, he showed excellent tactical speed and set or pressed the pace on every occasion.

Thursday’s maiden heat will mark B C Glory Days’ third start back from a layoff, a winning move 22% of the time for trainer John Terranova.

We’ll take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion and place a $10 win wager on B C Glory Days, then play him over logical favorite #7 Blitz to Win (2-1) in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #9 B C Glory Days
$5 exacta: 9 with 7
Total: $15

Good luck!