Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Oct. 29

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $60 worth of picks and plays for Friday, Oct. 29 at Belmont Park and Keeneland, along with horses to key in a pair of non-jackpot carryovers at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Keeneland.
• The Everest Carnival $15,000 Leaderboard: Place $10 win bets to play for your share of the $15,000 The Everest Carnival Leaderboard competition, every Friday, from Oct. 1-29, at selected Australian tracks.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Remington Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Newmarket (United Kingdom).

Picks and plays

Belmont Park, Race 4: $80,000 optional-claiming allowance (1 1/16 miles, 2:13 p.m. ET)

#6 Speaker’s Corner (1-1) has beaten quality competition in sprints and was a dominant winner of his 2021 debut, when he crushed a seven-furlong allowance at Saratoga by 5 1/4 lengths.

But the son of Street Sense misfired without an obvious excuse when he stretched out to 1 1/8 miles in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), where he faded to finish sixth, by a wide margin.

It is possible a drop in class and the addition of blinkers will help Speaker’s Corner rebound, but trainer Bill Mott strikes at just a 5% rate with horses wearing blinkers for the first time, and 1-1 seems like a short price to accept.

Instead, we’ll try to beat Speaker’s Corner with #2 First Constitution (5-2).

A Group 1 winner in his native Chile, First Constitution ran well at this track, distance, and class level Oct. 2, when he finished third, less than a length behind the winner, against stakes winners You’re to Blame and #1 Backsideofthemoon (4-1). First Constitution didn’t get the cleanest trip and is eligible to improve Friday, which sets the stage for a mild upset.

$20 to win on #2 First Constitution
$5 exacta: 2 with 6
Total: $25

Keeneland, Race 8: Myrtlewood S. (six furlongs, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#7 Majestic d’Oro (6-1) was a flashy debut winner at Indiana Grand, where she rallied boldly to dominate a six-furlong sprint by 5 3/4 lengths. The daughter of Speightster subsequently faltered when she stretched out to 1 1/16 miles for the Pocahontas S. (G3), but she didn’t run a bad race. She challenged heavy favorite and eventual winner Hidden Connection around the far turn and weakened in the final furlong.

The drop in class and distance can help Majestic d’Oro rebound at a fair price Friday. Hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 26% winner at Keeneland) has the mount, so let’s take advantage of the Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back promotion and place a $10 win wager on Majestic d’Oro.

Fellow class droppers #1 Jester Calls Nojoy (7-2) and #9 Chi Town Lady (3-1) can battle for a spot in the exacta.

$10 to win on #7 Majestic d’Oro
$5 exacta: 7 with 1,9 ($10)
Total: $20

Keeneland, Race 9: Valley View S. (G3, 1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:16 p.m. ET)

A full field of three-year-old fillies will face the starter in this 1 1/16-mile turf test, and the morning-line favorites don’t appear unbeatable. #3 Crazy Beautiful (3-1) has been competing on dirt, while #4 Tobys Heart (7-2) is undefeated in four sprint starts at 6 1/2 furlongs or shorter and winless in four starts at seven furlongs or farther.

In contrast, the distance and surface of the Valley View should suit #11 Lady Speightspeare (10-1). The daughter of Speightstown is unbeaten in three starts, including a determined victory in the one-mile Natalma S. (G1) at Woodbine last season.

Lady Speightspeare recently returned from a long layoff to wire a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Woodbine by two lengths. Her tactical speed should be an asset in Friday’s large field, which will help Lady Speightspeare stay out of trouble on the front end.

Thanks to the Keeneland Fall Meet Bet Back promotion, we can place a $10 win bet on Lady Speightspeare and receive a refund if she settles for second or third place. We’ll use Tobys Heart for second place in the exacta.

$10 to win on #11 Lady Speightspeare
$5 exacta: 11 with 4
Total: $15

Carryover watch

Keeneland, Race 5: $13,775 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

One of the best non-jackpot carryovers to pursue Friday is the $1 Pick 6 at Keeneland.

With 69 entries and 1,900,800 possible outcomes before scratches, the Pick 6 won’t be easy to hit. But you can drop the number of possibilities down to a more manageable 126,700 if you’re willing to single #3 Kiss the Sky (2-1) in Race 7, a 1 1/16-mile allowance for juveniles on turf.

Kiss the Sky hasn’t missed the exacta in his first three starts, including a couple turf tries. After he broke his maiden at 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga lawn, Kiss the Sky stepped up in class for the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile at Kentucky Downs, where he rallied gamely to finish second, by less than a length, against next-out Bourbon S. (G2) winner Tiz the Bomb.

If Kiss the Sky repeats that performance Friday, he’ll be tough to deny, which stamps the Mike Maker trainee as a logical single under Gaffalione.

Keeneland, Race 10: $6,595 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Keeneland concludes with Race 10, a $20,000 maiden claimer that features a carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

There isn’t an obvious standout among the 10 entrants in this seven-furlong dash, but if you want to take a stand somewhere, we recommend #5 Contractor Bill (4-1).

Normally we wouldn’t recommend an 0-for-16 maiden as a horse to key on top in exotic wagers, but the majority of Contractor Bill’s races have come on turf and synthetic. On dirt, he has cracked the exacta in two of his three starts against maiden special weight company and earned solid Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 78.

Contractor Bill arrives at Keeneland off a runner-up effort in a $30,000 maiden claimer over the Indiana Grand turf course, so a drop to the $20,000 level and a return to dirt may trigger a breakthrough victory.

Good luck!