Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Nov. 2 at Mahoning Valley and Indiana Grand, including a trio of cold exacta bets.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing and Indiana Grand.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:40 p.m. ET)

Since 2019, trainer Robert Gorham has gone 2-for-5 (40%) debuting juveniles at Mahoning Valley. It’s a small sample size, but one that suggests #1A Mission Girl (7-2) is worth betting in his maiden dash for two-year-old fillies.

A daughter of Commissioner (who sires a respectable 12% winners from first-time starters), Mission Girl was produced by Brier Hill Girl, whose first foal—Beeblegee—broke her maiden at Mahoning Valley as a juvenile. Mission Girl may be able to follow suit after turning in a handful of promising workouts, including a half mile in :48 1/5.

Throw in the presence of jockey Christian Pilares (a 22% winner when teaming up with Gorham), and Mission Girl looks like a worthwhile win play. The fact she’s coupled in the betting with stablemate #1 Birdie’s Chantz (7-2) adds to the appeal.

#3 Patti Lou (5-1) can complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #1A Mission Girl
$5 Exacta: 1 with 3
Total: $25

Mahoning Valley: Race 6: $8,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 3:04 p.m. ET)

#4 Due North (5-2) couldn’t quite hang on when dueling through fast fractions in a $12,500 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Thistledown last month, fading late to finish third. But Due North had previously used her speed to dominate a $7,500 claimer over the same track and distance by 5 3/4 lengths, earning a solid 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Due North was even sharper when last seen at Mahoning Valley, smashing a $5,000 claimer on March 30 by 20 3/4 lengths. Returning to Mahoning for an $8,000 claimer should suit Due North just fine, and it’s encouraging to note hot jockey Jose Bracho (a 30% winner so far this meet) is named to ride.

Let’s bet Due North to win, then bet her over coupled entrymates #1 The Two Nancy’s (5-1) and #1A Abbey’s Snow White (5-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #4 Due North
$5 Exacta: 4 with 1
Total: $25

Indiana Grand: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:02 p.m. ET)

#10 Talktomejustice (15-1) ran reasonably well in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Indiana Grand last month. The daughter of Revolutionary made a solid mid-race move into quick fractions before weakening to finish fifth, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths for second place by Tuesday’s morning line favorite #4 Lilies for Morgan (2-1).

If Talktomejustice improves in her second run under colors, she can step up and vie for victory at double-digit odds. We’ll take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion and place a $10 win bet on Talktomejustice—that way, if she settles for second place, we’ll receive a refund.

We’ll also play Talktomejustice over Lilies for Morgan in the exacta.

$10 to win on #10 Talktomejustice
$5 Exacta: 10 with 4
Total: $15

Good luck!