Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $100 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs, Del Mar, and Indiana Grand, including a ticket for Churchill’s $7,292 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Indiana Grand and Woodbine.
• $16,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Make a winning Early Pick 4 wager at Hoosier Park to win a share of $1,000. Offer applies to the Early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) at Hoosier Park every Thursday from Aug. 19 through Dec. 2.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:06 p.m. ET)

#2 Shotgun Hottie (6-5) ran a winning race in her debut over this track and class level on Sept. 23. Sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs, the Tom Amoss trainee tracked the early pace from third place, raced into contention down the homestretch, and ultimately settled for second by a neck.

This effort produced a strong 81 Brisnet Speed rating, and the performance was flattered when third-place finisher Implosion came back to win her next start against similar company. If Shotgun Hottie brings her A-game on Thursday, she’ll be tough to catch under hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

#5 Angitude (7-2) can complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #2 Shotgun Hottie
$5 Exacta: 2 with 5
Total: $25

Del Mar: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:33 p.m. ET)

#3 Gimme Mo Baby (4-1) ran well in her first two starts against maiden special weight company on the Kentucky circuit. After rallying to finish third in her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Kentucky Downs, the bay filly stretched out over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland and failed by just a nose to catch the winner.

These efforts produced competitive Brisnet Speed ratings, and I’m optimistic Gimme Mo Baby will find the competition at bit easier here. We’ll bet the daughter of Jimmy Creed to win and play her over the stakes-placed #6 Hemmerle (3-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #3 Gimme Mo Baby
$5 Exacta: 3 with 6
Total: $25

Indiana Grand: Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs, 7:02 p.m. ET)

#8 Splash of Tonic (5-2) is the morning-line favorite after placing in the Miss Indiana S., but the daughter of Protonico has the pedigree of a router and has done her best work running long. Cutting back in distance is a question mark.

In contrast, the six-furlong trip shouldn’t be an obstacle for #6 Poetic Verse (3-1). The Robert Gorham trainee was sensational in her debut sprinting five furlongs at Indiana Grand, leading all the way to beat a pair of next-out winners by six lengths. In the process, Poetic Verse posted a flashy 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

As a half-sibling to Flatter Hymn (a stakes-winning router at Indiana Grand), Poetic Verse is eligible to improve while stretching out from five to six furlongs. She hasn’t run since June, but if she’s ready to roll off the layoff, her rivals may be running for second place.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Poetic Verse. Then we’ll add exacta tickets using Splash of Tonic and #1 Cactus Flower (9-2) for second place.

$10 to win on #6 Poetic Verse
$4 Exacta: 6 with 1
Total: $14

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs, Race 10: $7,292 Super High 5 carryover (5:36 p.m. ET)

If you’re planning to pursue Thursday’s $7,292 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs, you had better be prepared to handicap creatively or spread deep, because the outcome—whatever it winds up being—is far from obvious on paper.

As far as Super High 5 wagers go, the challenge waiting at Churchill Downs isn’t impossible from a raw numbers standpoint. The carryover is up for grabs in Race 10, a $30,000 maiden claimer held over one mile on the main track. With just nine horses in the field, there are only 15,120 possible outcomes.

The problem is, it’s difficult to eliminate anyone from contention, much less single out the most likely winner. The morning-line favorite is the lightly-raced #1 Motion Picture (5-2), who exits a pair of maiden special weights at Monmouth Park and Parx Racing. The son of Medaglia d’Oro brings a quality pedigree to the table and is eligible to challenge while dropping down the class ladder in his first start for trainer Ron Moquett.

But how will Motion Picture’s form at smaller East Coast tracks translate to a maiden claimer at Churchill Downs? His Brisnet Speed ratings are actually a little light, suggesting the class drop isn’t quite as pronounced as it appears. The competition at Churchill might be just as tough, opening the door for an upset.

Instead on betting Motion Picture on top, we’ll take a shot with #3 Falcon Heavy (8-1). True, the stoutly bred son of Birdstone hasn’t challenged in his first two starts against $30,000 maiden claiming company, finishing fifth at Ellis Park and fifth again at Keeneland. But the fact he’s only run twice means Falcon Heavy has upside for improvement, especially while adding blinkers. If he shows improved tactical speed in his third run under colors, this stretch-running sophomore can step up and surprise at a price.

The graded stakes-experienced #2 Rogue Element (5-1) and the consistent #8 Captain Fantastic (9-2) are other logical contenders with the Brisnet Speed ratings to battle for minor awards. We’ll emphasize these two and Motion Picture underneath Falcon Heavy in the Super High 5 while spreading deep for the final slots.

$1 Super High 5: 3 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 1,2,4,5,8 ($36)

Good luck!