Keeneland: Betting the Breeders' Futurity

Since the 2020 Breeders’ Cup will take place at Keeneland, the $400,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on Saturday figures to take on extra importance.

The 1 1/16-mile event annually serves as Keeneland’s signature race for 2-year-olds. It awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and 17 qualification points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Breeders’ Futurity is even more significant this year, since it serves as a track-and-distance prep for the Juvenile, which gives local runners a home-court advantage.

Among the nine horses entered in the Breeders’ Futurity, several have pedigrees and profiles indicative of Breeders’ Cup potential.

#2 Upstriker (8-1) trounced his rivals by five lengths in a maiden sprint at Ellis Park. #7 Calibrate (7-2) wired his debut at Saratoga by 4 1/2 lengths. #8 Founder (5-2) sold for $600,000 and rallied strongly to win a Saratoga maiden race. #9 King Fury (12-1) fetched $950,000 as a yearling and is already proven over 1 1/16 miles, as he overcame a wide trip to dominate his debut at Churchill Downs.

But the horse I’m most excited to play is #4 Essential Quality (2-1). A Godolphin homebred trained by Brad Cox, the stoutly bred son of Tapit made a fantastic visual impression in his debut sprinting 6 furlongs at Churchill Downs.

His four-length margin of victory was eye-catching, and his final time of 1:09.98 was quick, but it was the manner in which Essential Quality prevailed that really captured my attention.

Reserved 7 1/2 lengths off the early pace, Essential Quality ran up behind horses on the turn and had to wait in traffic for an extended time. He had nowhere to run early in the homestretch, but once he shifted outside for a clear path, he accelerated through a final furlong in about :12 flat to obliterate his rivals.

Essential Quality appeared to be just getting going and should relish the opportunity to stretch out over 1 1/16 miles in the Breeders’ Futurity. Cox trainees typically improve in their second start, so as sharp as Essential Quality looked on debut, he should fare even better Saturday. A fast 5-furlong workout on Sept. 26 adds to the appeal.

A win bet is in order, but we’ll also play Essential Quality on top in the trifecta, with Calibrate keyed underneath.

$20 to win on #4 Essential Quality
$2.50 trifecta: 4 with 7 with 1,2,8,9 ($10)
$2.50 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,8,9 with 7 ($10)
Total: $40

Good luck!