Keeneland: Betting the Shadwell Turf Mile

What happens when you put $750,000 and a "Win and You’re In" berth to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) up for grabs? You attract an elite field like the one assembled for Saturday’s Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

From top to bottom, the race is stacked with top-tier turf talent. Five Grade or Group 1 winners have been entered, including defending champion #4 Bowies Hero (15-1). Three others have placed at the highest level, such as 2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile third-place finisher #8 Analyze It (9-2). There’s a wide variety of running styles in the mix, ranging from the front-running Fourstardave H. (G1) winner #2 Halladay (5-2), to the deep-closing Shoemaker Mile (G1) winner #6 Raging Bull (6-1).

You could probably handicap by throwing darts and come up with a viable selection in this ultra-competitive race, which is why I’m not particularly keen to play short-priced runners. The Shadwell Turf Mile frequently produces surprising results. In fact, the last five winners have started at odds of 8-1, 23-1, 9-1, 7-1, and 4-1, with only two favorites cracking the trifecta during the same timeframe.

As a result, I’m going to take a shot with #5 Born Great (20-1). A son of Scat Daddy out of a More Than Ready mare, this lightly-raced 4-year-old is bred to excel as a turf miler.

Born Great was a sensation during the recently-concluded Kentucky Downs meet. After breaking his maiden sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Sept. 9, the dark bay gelding came back a week later and obliterated an allowance race over the same distance by 5 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:13.87 broke the course record and produced a strong 103 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Born Great will be stretching out in distance for the Shadwell Turf Mile, but 6 1/2-furlong races over the undulating Kentucky Downs course require a bit more stamina than typical turf sprints, so I’m optimistic Born Great will handle the added ground just fine. He’s got tactical speed couple with tractability, so a clean trip should be in the offing.

At 20-1, Born Great is worth betting to win and playing underneath "ALL" in the exacta.

$10 to win on #5 Born Great
$1 exacta: ALL with 5 ($10)
Total: $20

Good luck!