Keeneland: How to bet the opening day Pick 4

The eagerly anticipated Keeneland fall meet kicks off Friday, with a competitive 10-race card, highlighted by two graded stakes races.

Among the best wagering propositions of the afternoon is a late Pick 4 with a $200,000 guaranteed pool. Let’s play the sequence on a $20 budget and try to catch a piece of the action.

Race 7: Allowance (4:30 p.m. ET)

None of the eight fillies and mares entered in this 1 1/8-mile turf test have ever won more than a maiden race, so I’m tempted to take a shot with the lightly raced #5 I Hear You (3-1), who might have the most upside.

Trained by Michael Stidham, I Hear You finished fifth in her debut at Laurel Park, then rallied to victory in a 1 1/16-mile event at Keeneland, where she defeated next-out winner Fate Factor by 1 1/2 lengths. The daughter of Street Sense then stepped up in class for a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Churchill Downs and came charging late to finish second, beaten less than a length.

Hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione has retained the mount, so we’ll use I Hear You with Dueling Grounds Oaks third-place finisher #8 Luck Money (5-2) to kick off the Pick 4.

Race 8: Phoenix (G2, 5:05 p.m. ET)

There are plenty of live contenders in this “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

Grade 1 winner #3 Whitmore (7-2) won the 2017 Phoenix and finished second in the 2018 and 2019 renewals, which showcases his affinity for the Keeneland oval.

But former claimer #2 Absolutely Aiden (12-1) looks like the “now” horse, after he used his speed to win Ellis Park’s 6 1/2-furlong Good Lord S. with a 101 Brisnet Speed rating, and the 3-year-olds #1 Shashashakemeup (30-1) and #6 Echo Town (8-1) have run well sprinting against tough company.

We’ll use all four and toss in recent Ellis Park allowance winner #10 Edgemont Road (15-1) for good measure.

Race 9: Alciabides (G1, 5:40 p.m. ET)

#1 Thoughtfully (3-1), #2 Travel Column (7-2), Crazy Beautiful (5-2), and #7 Simply Ravishing (3-1) all warrant respect in this 1 1/16-mile race, which awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

But rather than use all four, I’ll take a stand with Simply Ravishing, who is undefeated in two starts, following a 6 1/2-length romp in the 7-furlong P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga.

Simply Ravishing previously won her debut at 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga turf course, so the distance of the Alcibiades shouldn’t be an issue. With her tactical speed and versatility, Simply Ravishing looks like the filly to beat Friday.

Race 10: Maiden special weight (6:15 p.m. ET)

If not for a technicality, #3 Royal Price (7-2) wouldn’t be eligible to compete in this 1 1/16-mile turf test for 2-year-olds.

The Brad Cox trainee rallied to cross the wire first by 1 1/4 lengths in a 1-mile maiden race at Kentucky Downs last month, but a starting gate malfunction prompted the race to be declared a no-contest, which means the victory hasn’t been counted on Royal Prince’s record.

The fact Royal Prince has already “won” a race makes him appealing in the Friday finale, though we’ll back him up with #11 Narmer (3-1), a beautifully bred son of American Pharoah, who will debut from the high-percentage barn of Chad Brown.

The Ticket

Race 8: $1 Pick 4 — 5,8 with 1,2,3,6,10 with 7 with 3,11 ($20)

Good luck!