Keeneland stakes spot plays for Oct. 4

Picks and plays on a $100 budget for Sunday’s Breeders’ Cup Challenge races at Keeneland.

Race 6: Indian Summer S. (4 p.m. ET)

#5 Golden Pal (8-5) has shown an abundance of talent for trainer Wesley Ward, a master at conditioning 2-year-old sprinters.

After he finished second in his first two starts, including the Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot in England, Golden Pal romped by 3 1/2 lengths in the Skidmore S. at Saratoga.

In the Skidmore, Golden Pal carved out fast fractions before and rocketed home the final three-sixteenths in :16.51 — an excellent time for any horse, let alone a 2-year-old.

A repeat of this tour-de-force performance should carry Golden Pal to victory in Sunday’s “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2).

$50 to win on #5 Golden Pal

Race 8: Bourbon (G3, 5:10 p.m. ET)

#10 Mutasaabeq (3-1) has never run on turf, but this $425,000 weanling purchase has shown significant talent on dirt for trainer Todd Pletcher.

After he romped by 4 1/2 lengths in his debut at Saratoga, the son of Into Mischief finished third against tough company in the Hopeful (G1).

Into Mischief sires 14% winners from first-time starters on turf, so there’s a good chance Mutasaabeq will handle the surface switch just fine, which puts him in contention to secure a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

He has turned in a couple sharp workouts on grass at Saratoga, so let’s use Mutasaabeq and impressive Laurel Park maiden winner #8 Arrest Me Red (20-1) to kick off a double bet.

$10 double: 10 with 2,3 ($20)
$3 double: 8 with 2,3 ($6)
Total: $26

Race 9: Spinster (G1, 5:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Shedaresthedevil (7-5) is favored after she employed pace-tracking tactics to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) with a strong 106 Brisnet Speed rating.

The daughter of Daredevil has won her last three starts and just keeps getting faster for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, which makes her an obvious contender to secure a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

But Shedaresthedevil will have to bring her "A" game to defeat #2 Ollie’s Candy (2-1), who has possibly endured the most frustrating campaign of any horse in 2020.

The consistent 5-year-old has cracked the trifecta in four straight Grade 1 races, and three of those defeats came by a half-length or less.

Ollie’s Candy brings lofty Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings to the table and may set the pace out of post 2.

Since Shedaresthedevil has never run against older mares, I’ll give Ollie’s Candy a slight edge. I'll bet her on top in the trifecta and key Shedaresthedevil underneath.

$4 trifecta: 2 with 3 with 1,5,6 ($12)
$4 trifecta: 2 with 1,5,6 with 3 ($12)
Total: $24

Good luck!