Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report: Santa Anita Derby
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April 10th, 2018
Justify lived up to the hype in his first stakes attempt and left no doubt about Kentucky Derby favoritism rolling to a convincing wire-to-wire win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). His 114 BRIS Speed rating towers above any other number in the six-year history of the Kentucky Derby points system.
Trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert, the imposing Scat Daddy colt received 100 and 105 BRIS E1 and E2 Pace ratings as well as whopping 117 Late Pace after turning back a bid from runner-up Bolt d’Oro in midstretch.
Justify, who was unraced at age 2 and didn’t make his career debut until February 18, will be spotting experience to rivals and making his first start outside of Santa Anita in the Kentucky Derby. But there’s no questioning his talent and his BRIS numbers are special, registering excellent 100 and 104 Speed figures in his first two outings before stepping up with a massive performance in the lone prep race.
Bolt d’Oro didn’t receive the right set-up with Justify as the lone speed and will try to capitalize upon expected favorable conditions on May 5. The multiple Grade 1-winning juvenile did post an encouraging 110 BRIS Speed rating, eclipsing a 105 from last fall, and his 114 Late Pace number rates as an attribute.
Core Beliefs won’t qualify after finishing third in his stakes bow. Instilled Regard disappointed backers finishing a well-beaten fourth and will need help to make the Kentucky Derby field (21st presently with 29 points).
The Road to the Kentucky Derby series determines eligibility and a 35-race schedule is divided between the Prep Season and Championship Series.
Top BRIS Speed ratings so far in the Championship Series, which began in mid-February (95 and better):
|
Horse |
|
Race (finish) |
|
BRIS Speed |
|
Justify |
|
Santa Anita Derby (1st) |
|
114 |
|
Bolt d’Oro |
|
Santa Anita Derby (2nd) |
|
110 |
|
Audible |
|
Florida Derby (1st) |
|
107 |
|
Enticed |
|
Gotham (1st) |
|
104 |
|
Promises Fulfilled |
|
Fountain of Youth (1st) |
|
104 |
|
Hofburg |
|
Florida Derby (2nd) |
|
104 |
|
Vino Rosso |
|
Wood Memorial (1st) |
|
102 |
|
Instilled Regard |
|
Santa Anita Derby (4th) |
|
102 |
|
Magnum Moon |
|
Rebel (1st) |
|
100 |
|
Noble Indy |
|
Louisiana Derby (1st) |
|
100 |
|
Lone Sailor |
|
Louisiana Derby (2nd) |
|
100 |
|
Enticed |
|
Wood Memorial (2nd) |
|
99 |
|
My Boy Jack |
|
Louisiana Derby (3rd) |
|
99 |
|
Bolt d’Oro |
|
San Felipe (1st) |
|
98 |
|
Bravazo |
|
Risen Star (1st) |
|
98 |
|
Good Magic |
|
Blue Grass (1st) |
|
98 |
|
Quip |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (1st) |
|
98 |
|
Snapper Sinclair |
|
Risen Star (2nd) |
|
98 |
|
Good Magic |
|
Fountain of Youth (3rd) |
|
98 |
|
Flameaway |
|
Blue Grass (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
Flameaway |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
Runaway Ghost |
|
Sunland Derby (1st) |
|
96 |
|
Solomini |
|
Rebel (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
Combatant |
|
Rebel (3rd) |
|
96 |
|
Free Drop Billy |
|
Gotham (3rd) |
|
96 |
|
Noble Indy |
|
Risen Star (3rd) |
|
96 |
|
Instilled Regard |
|
Risen Star (4th) |
|
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Top BRIS Speed ratings from the Prep Season, which began last September and concluded in mid-February:
|
Horse (finish) |
|
Race |
|
BRIS Speed |
|
Audible |
|
Holy Bull (1st) |
|
105 |
|
Bolt d’Oro |
|
FrontRunner (1st) |
|
105 |
|
Good Magic |
|
BC Juvenile (1st) |
|
105 |
|
Flameaway |
|
Sam F. Davis (1st) |
|
101 |
|
Solomini |
|
Los Alamitos Futurity (3rd) |
|
101 |
|
Instilled Regard |
|
Los Alamitos Futurity (2nd) |
|
100 |
|
Solomini |
|
BC Juvenile (2nd) |
|
100 |
|
Vino Rosso |
|
Sam F. Davis (3rd) |
|
100 |
|
Free Drop Billy |
|
Holy Bull (2nd) |
|
99 |
|
Bolt d’Oro |
|
BC Juvenile (3rd) |
|
99 |
|
My Boy Jack |
|
Southwest (1st) |
|
98 |
|
Firenze Fire |
|
Champagne (1st) |
|
96 |
|
Instilled Regard |
|
Lecomte (1st) |
|
96 |
|
Good Magic |
|
Champagne (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
Solomini |
|
FrontRunner (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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