Kentucky Derby Top 10: Kicking off the road to 2020

The Breeders’ Cup is in the books, which means we’re less than six months away from the 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.

The 2019-2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby is already underway, and while consistency has not been a strong suit among the early Derby contenders, we’ve seen flashes of serious talent from at least a dozen colts.

Who are some of the names to keep an eye on this winter? Let’s kick things off with my initial 2020 Kentucky Derby Top 10 list.

1. Anneau d’Or

A wide trip may have cost Anneau d’Or victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but no matter how you slice it, he ran a big race. This stoutly bred son of Medaglia d’Oro made just his second start and his first on dirt in the Juvenile, yet he came up only a head short of victory and posted a triple-digit Brisnet speed rating. With his blend of tactical speed and stamina, Anneau d’Or could develop into a major player on the Derby trail.

2. Maxfield

A foot bruise forced Maxfield to miss the Juvenile, but perhaps this setback will be a blessing in disguise. A son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Maxfield was spectacular in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, where he unleashed a sweeping rally on the far turn to roar past rivals and win going away. It takes a special horse to pull off such a move, and a rest over the winter could set up Maxfield for a big season in 2020.

3. Honor A. P.

After he finished second in his debut at Del Mar, Honor A. P. stretched out to a mile at Santa Anita and cruised to an easy maiden victory under jockey Mike Smith. One of three promising juveniles conditioned by John Shirreffs, Honor A. P. finished fast over a slow and tiring track (he ran the final two furlongs in :12.81 and :12.61) to earn a 97 Brisnet speed rating. The best is likely still to come for this promising son of champion Honor Code.

4. Dennis’ Moment

After he stumbled to his knees at the start of the Juvenile, Dennis’ Moment never fired and trailed throughout. It was a disappointing effort from the betting favorite, but I suggest drawing a line through his performance. His previous two runs—a stunning maiden win at Ellis Park and an easy triumph in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs—suggest he just had a bad day at Santa Anita.

5. Thousand Words

The Derby trail won't be complete without a horse or two conditioned by five-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert. Thousand Words fired off a nice debut effort at Santa Anita on October 26, when he out-battled Shirreffs’ capable colt Thunder Code to win a 6 1/2-furlong sprint in narrow fashion. His 89 Brisnet speed rating was a solid start, and as a son of Pioneerof the Nile (sire of Baffert’s 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah), Thousand Words is bred to improve while stretching out in distance.

6. Independence Hall

Independence Hall raced greenly down the homestretch of the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, but it didn’t matter. The son of hot young sire Constitution won by a record-breaking 12 1/4 lengths. By running the mile in 1:34.66 (a stakes record), Independence Hall earned an eye-catching 101 Brisnet speed rating. Now 2-for-2, this Michael Trombetta-trained colt has burst onto the Derby trail in a big way.

7. Storm the Court

An improving son of Sky Kingdom, Storm the Court ran out of his skin in the Juvenile, where he led from start to finish and gamely held off a sustained challenge from Anneau d’Or to win by a head. This was a big step up off his previous form, but his sire improved with maturity, and it’s possible Storm the Court is still an unfinished package with a lot more to offer.

8. Eight Rings

Trained by Baffert, Eight Rings defeated Storm the Court by 8 1/4 lengths in the American Phaorah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, but regressed sharply in the Juvenile, where he faded to finish a distant sixth. Eight Rings is a quirky colt and probably still a work in progress, but as a son of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker, he is bred to relish classic distances and could show improvement during the winter.

9. Tiz the Law

An easy winner of the Champagne Stakes (G1), Tiz the Law skipped the Juvenile and will instead contest the November 30 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. This patient approach could work well in the long run for Tiz the Law, who races for Sackatoga Stable and trainer Barclay Tagg of Funny Cide fame. The sky could be the limit for this son of Constitution, who is undefeated and unchallenged in two starts.

10. Danon Pharaoh

Japanese shippers Lani (2016) and Master Fencer (2019) both outran expectations during their Triple Crown campaigns, and they weren’t even the best of their foal crops in Japan. I suspect the right Japanese challenger could make an impact on the Run for the Roses, and Danon Pharaoh certainly has the pedigree to succeed at Churchill Downs.

A son of American Pharoah, out of Santa Anita Oaks (G1) winner Crisp, Danon Pharaoh finished second in his debut going 1,600 meters (about one mile) at Tokyo, then broke his maiden over the same track and distance by a comfortable 1 1/4 lengths. His final times of 1:37.4 and 1:38.5 are solid for a juvenile at Tokyo, and his finishing fractions (final 600 meters in :36.80 and :36.20) are excellent. Trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who also conditions the globetrotting Group 1 winner Lys Gracieux, Danon Pharaoh looks like an exciting prospect for the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.