Kentucky Oaks Post Position Draw and Odds Analysis

Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs kicked off with a burst of excitement on Monday morning when post positions were drawn for Friday’s $1 million Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), the prestigious race for three-year-old fillies that is held one day before the Derby.

Fourteen horses have been entered in the nine-furlong “Run for the Lilies,” and while the small field compared to the Derby means that the post position draw isn’t quite as critical, it still holds the potential to affect the outcome of the race. Let’s take a quick look at the post positions and the morning line odds and analyze what they could mean for handicapping (and betting) the race….

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Sassy Sienna	Gary Stevens	Brad Cox	15-1
2	Coach Rocks	Luis Saez	Dale Romans	12-1
3	Classy Act	Brian Hernandez, Jr.	Bret Calhoun	15-1
4	Chocolate Martini	Javier Castellano	Tom Amoss	12-1
5	Wonder Gadot	John Velazquez	Mark Casse	20-1
6	Kelly's Humor	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	Brad Cox	30-1
7	Rayya	Drayden Van Dyke	Bob Baffert	15-1
8	Heavenhasmynikki	Calvin Borel	Anthony Quartarolo	30-1
9	Take Charge Paula	Jose Ortiz	Kiaran McLaughlin	15-1
10	Midnight Bisou	Mike Smith	Bill Spawr	5-2
11	My Miss Lilly	Joe Bravo	Mark Hennig	10-1
12	Patrona Margarita	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	Bret Calhoun	30-1
13	Eskimo Kisses	Corey Lanerie	Kenny McPeek	15-1
14	Monomoy Girl	Florent Geroux	Brad Cox	2-1

By far the biggest development from the draw is 2-1 morning line favorite Monomoy Girl landing the far outside post position. Although the daughter of Tapizar is very versatile in terms of running style, drawing such a wide post could force jockey Florent Geroux to get aggressive early and employ front-running tactics to help Monomoy Girl clear as many of her rivals as possible and save ground around the first turn. It’s definitely not an ideal draw, though with the majority of Monomoy Girl’s rivals to her immediate inside being late runners, it might not be as troublesome as it appears at first glance.

Still, having Monomoy Girl drawn so wide makes the 5-2 odds on Midnight Bisou rather appealing. Midnight Bisou is just as accomplished as Monomoy Girl, and while she has been a bit more workmanlike than flashy, she also hasn’t been seriously challenged this year and boasts speed figures that are pretty much on par with those earned by Monomoy’s Girl.

One of the more interesting longshots in the field might be Classy Act at 15-1. I suspect that she’ll get overlooked a bit and go off at an even higher price, but Classy Act ran well when second behind Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. II) two starts back, and last time out she set a very fast pace in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) yet was beaten just 1 ¼ lengths while finishing fourth. Drawing post three could allow her to get out in front again and take this field a long way on the lead.

A potential underlay might be Rayya, who makes her first start for trainer . She’s 15-1 on the morning line, but I expect her to start at a shorter price since she's getting a lot of hype off her runner-up effort in the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in Dubai last time out. That was a nice run, but I think it’s important to note that Rayya was still beaten 18 ½ lengths despite an ideal trip racing along the inside on a day when the rail was the best part of the track.

Which fillies do you think were affected most by the post position draw, and which do you feel will offer the best value in the wagering?