Keying a 6-1 shot in the 2019 Spinaway Stakes
August 30th, 2019
#6 Risky Mischief might not be the fastest filly on paper in Sunday’s $350,000 Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, but I believe this daughter of Into Mischief might be better than she appears at first glance.
Although Risky Mischief’s debut victory on July 31 at Saratoga didn’t yield big speed figures (67 Beyer and 82 Brisnet), she made a terrific visual impression. Facing nine New York-bred rivals in a six-furlong sprint, Risky Mischief broke slowly from the rail before rushing up to take the lead, often a recipe for defeat. But despite her inexperience, Risky Mischief widened easily around the turn, opened up a decisive advantage in the homestretch, and ultimately prevailed by 7 ½ lengths while eased up by jockey Jose Ortiz.
A sharper start and a less hurried effort to secure the lead could trigger improvement from Risky Mischief in the Spinaway Stakes. But even if she’s a little slow to get going again, breaking from post six in a field of seven should afford her plenty of options for working out a clean, unhurried trip.
Need another reason to support Risky Mischief? Her trainer, Jeremiah Englehart, has been absolutely on fire with juveniles on dirt at Saratoga, compiling an 8-for-23 (35%) record so far. Half of those winners were experienced runners with previous race(s) under their belts, so Englehart is winning with all types, not just first-time starters.
I’ll grant you that Risky Mischief will be facing some formidable opponents in the Spinaway. #7 Shippy won her debut at Laurel Park by 10 ¾ lengths before finishing a close third in the Schuylerville Stakes (G3) here at Saratoga, and with Beyer speed figures of 87 and 79, she’s by far the fastest filly in the field. #3 Perfect Alibi won Saratoga’s Adirondack Stakes (G2) four weeks ago, and #5 Figure of Speech was an impressive debut winner for Saratoga’s leading trainer Chad Brown.
But judging from the visual impression Risky Mischief made in her debut, I don’t think we’ve seen her best yet. I’m optimistic she can step up her game in the Spinaway, and at 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth betting to win and keying in the trifecta.
Here’s how I would play the race:
$12 to win on #6 Risky Mischief $1 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 2,3,5 ($3) $1 trifecta: 6 with 2,3,5 with 7 ($3) $2 trifecta: 7 with 6 with 2,3,5 ($6) $2 trifecta: 2,3,5 with 6 with 7 ($6)
Good luck!
A sharper start and a less hurried effort to secure the lead could trigger improvement from Risky Mischief in the Spinaway Stakes. But even if she’s a little slow to get going again, breaking from post six in a field of seven should afford her plenty of options for working out a clean, unhurried trip.
Need another reason to support Risky Mischief? Her trainer, Jeremiah Englehart, has been absolutely on fire with juveniles on dirt at Saratoga, compiling an 8-for-23 (35%) record so far. Half of those winners were experienced runners with previous race(s) under their belts, so Englehart is winning with all types, not just first-time starters.
I’ll grant you that Risky Mischief will be facing some formidable opponents in the Spinaway. #7 Shippy won her debut at Laurel Park by 10 ¾ lengths before finishing a close third in the Schuylerville Stakes (G3) here at Saratoga, and with Beyer speed figures of 87 and 79, she’s by far the fastest filly in the field. #3 Perfect Alibi won Saratoga’s Adirondack Stakes (G2) four weeks ago, and #5 Figure of Speech was an impressive debut winner for Saratoga’s leading trainer Chad Brown.
But judging from the visual impression Risky Mischief made in her debut, I don’t think we’ve seen her best yet. I’m optimistic she can step up her game in the Spinaway, and at 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth betting to win and keying in the trifecta.
Here’s how I would play the race:
$12 to win on #6 Risky Mischief $1 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 2,3,5 ($3) $1 trifecta: 6 with 2,3,5 with 7 ($3) $2 trifecta: 7 with 6 with 2,3,5 ($6) $2 trifecta: 2,3,5 with 6 with 7 ($6)
Good luck!
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