Looking for a longshot in the River City Handicap

It’s been a tough year so far for #4 Mr. Misunderstood, the probable favorite in Saturday’s $175,000 River City Handicap (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Throughout his career Mr. Misunderstood has been a winning machine, with 12 victories from 25 starts. He has been particularly dangerous at Churchill Downs, where he has a near-perfect 4-for-5 record, with graded stakes triumphs in the 2018 River City Handicap and Wise Dan Stakes (G2).

But Mr. Misunderstood is 0-for-4 in 2019 and suffered his first defeat at Churchill Downs when he flattened out to finish third as the 3-5 favorite in a June allowance race. He showed signs of returning to form when beaten a half-length in the Remington Green Stakes on September 29, but he had every opportunity to win and simply couldn’t outkick #6 Space Mountain in the final furlong.

Space Mountain is back for the River City Handicap and could give Mr. Misunderstood another fight, but the real threat might be Space Mountain’s Mike Maker-trained stablemate #7 Bemma’s Boy, a former claimer whose potential is still unclear.

After limited success on dirt, Maker claimed Bemma’s Boy for $30,000 in May and switched the son of Into Mischief to grass. The results have been impressive. After he finished third in a competitive one-mile claiming race at Saratoga, Bemma’s Boy improved to win a similar event by 6 3/4 lengths, and he dominated his rivals with a powerful rally around the far turn.

A very bad start cost Bemma’s Boy any chance in a September allowance at Churchill Downs, but he rebounded in a 1 1/2-mile allowance race at Keeneland, where he settled a few lengths behind a slow pace and sprinted to the front to score by 2 1/2 lengths over next-out winner Apreciado.

With Brisnet speed ratings of 100, 99 and 96 under his belt, Bemma’s Boy is just as fast on paper as Mr. Misunderstood. Bemma’s Boy is still on the rise for a trainer who excels at converting claimers into stakes performers, so would an upset victory in the River City really be much of a surprise?

Let’s bet Bemma’s Boy to win and box him in the exacta with Mr. Misunderstood. We’ll also play Bemma’s Boy on top on a trifecta with Mr. Misunderstood, Space Mountain and the graded stakes-placed #9 Admission Office underneath.

$12 to win on #7 Bemma’s Boy $6 exacta box: 4,7 ($12) $1 trifecta: 7 with 4,6,9 with 4,6,9 ($6)

Good luck!