Looking for a longshot in the Test Stakes

There are plenty of accomplished fillies to choose from in Saturday’s $500,000 Test Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. The only problem? They all share similar running styles.

There’s the frontrunning #1 Serengeti Empress, winner of the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1) and runner-up in the one-mile Acorn Stakes (G1). Trained by Tom Amoss, the daughter of Alternation is a tried-and-true frontrunner, and she’ll be cutting back to seven furlongs for the Test. With the rail draw she really has no choice but to gun for the lead.

But similar tactics figure to be employed by #2 Bellafina, a six-time graded stakes winner who finished fifth in the Kentucky Oaks. Like Serengeti Empress, Bellafina is cutting back in distance, and that shouldn’t be an issue, because she won the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (G1) last summer. But while Bellafina has shown the ability to rate just off the lead, her best races have come when she’s set or pushed the pace.

The same goes for #3 Covfefe, who shattered the six-furlong track record at Pimlico when she won the Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) by 8 1/2 lengths in 1:07.70. Covfefe knows of only one way to run—all-out from start to finish—and she endeavored to employ her frontrunning tactics against older rivals in the six-furlong Roxelana Stakes last time out. Covfefe battled gamely from start to finish, but sprinting the opening quarter in :21.38 proved too much to overcome, and she weakened slightly to finish third.

Covfefe will be back with her age group Saturday, but how will she fare while stretching out in distance and tackling several speedy rivals? #6 Please Flatter Me, runner-up in the Miss Preakness, likes to race on the front end, too, so it’s safe to say four of the seven fillies entered in the Test Stakes could wind up vying for the lead.

I’m tempted to think outside the box and side with #4 Trenchtown Cat. Trained in Florida by Rohan Crichton, Trenchtown Cat started her career on turf (she even won the one-mile Sanibel Island Stakes) before she switched to dirt and cut back in distance for the 6 1/2-furlong Ana T. Stakes against older rivals at Gulfstream Park. Her response? A 3 3/4-length victory.

Trenchtown Cat again faced older mares in the seven-furlong Princess Rooney Stakes (G2), and I was impressed by her performance. After she settled off the pace, Trenchtown Cat made an eye-catching outside rally to reach contention at the top of the stretch. While she couldn't quite run down the two-length winner Stormy Embrace (a very capable sprinter), Trenchtown Cat did pull 5 1/4 lengths clear of the rest to finish second.

Trenchtown Cat has tactical speed and is versatile in terms of running style, but the late-running tactics she employed in the Princess Rooney should be a perfect fit for the Test. If a fast pace unfolds, I envision Trenchtown Cat—back against fellow 3-year-olds—to rally down the lane and spring an upset.

Let’s bet Trenchtown Cat to win and key her in the exacta with Covfefe, Bellafina and #5 Royal Charlotte, another late runner who should benefit from a hot pace.

$15 to win on #4 Trenchtown Cat $2 exacta: 4 with 2,3,5 ($6) $3 exacta: 2,3,5 with 4 ($9)

Good luck!