Monmouth Park: How to bet the Salvator Mile

Speed is dominant racing a mile at Monmouth Park. According to data from Brisnet, horses with “E” (early) or “E/P” (early/presser) running styles have won 78% of 1-mile races during the current meet.

The question is, which speed horse has the best chance to prevail in Sunday’s $150,000 Salvator Mile (G3)? There are plenty of frontrunners and pace pressers in the mix, and determining which runner is most likely to secure the winning journey is difficult.

After considering a number of scenarios, I’ve settled on #6 Pirate’s Punch (3-1) as the horse to beat. With the exception of a seventh-place effort against tough competition in the Stephen Foster (G2), Pirate’s Punch hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last 11 starts.

Trained by Grant Forster, Pirate’s Punch posted a big effort in the 1 1/16-mile Philip H. Iselin (G3) at Monmouth last month. After he pressed a steady early pace set by Warrior’s Charge, Pirate’s Punch took command on the far turn and edged clear to win by 1 1/2 lengths, though he was disqualified for drifting in and causing Warrior’s Charge to steady late in the race.

Although Pirate’s Punch was denied the winner’s share of the purse, he unquestionably turned in a winning performance and put up a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed rating. A repeat will put this tried-and-true frontrunner in the hunt for victory Sunday.

For the exotics, #1 Bal Harbour (5-2) is an obvious and formidable contender. Never out of the trifecta in six starts at Monmouth, the 5-year-old gelding rallied late to finish third in the Iselin and could show improvement in his third run of the season. A quick pace would surely benefit Bal Harbour, who does his best running from a few lengths off the early tempo.

#4 Top Line Growth (7-2) also warrants respect. The son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Tapizar hit the board in the Iowa Derby, West Virginia Derby (G3), and Smarty Jones (G3) last season and recently returned to action with an eye-catching allowance victory at Laurel Park.

After he pressed the early pace, Top Line Growth romped clear to score by 5 1/2 lengths, with a 101 Brisnet Speed rating, at Laurel. Joe Bravo, a 29% winner at Monmouth, will pick up the mount for the Salvator Mile.

Let’s key Pirate’s Punch in the exacta and trifecta, with Bal Harbour and Top Line Growth.

$5 exacta: 6 with 1,4 ($10)
$5 exacta: 1,4 with 6 ($10)
$2.50 trifecta: 6 with 1,4 with 1,4 ($5)
$2.50 trifecta: 1,4 with 6 with 1,4 ($5)
Total: $30

Good luck!