Mucciolo's Kentucky Derby draw analysis

by JOHN MUCCIOLO

The field is all set for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby (G1) following the post draw on Tuesday morning. I will take a look at the post positions and morning-line odds below.

1		Firenze Fire			50-1
2		Free Drop Billy			30-1
3		Promises Fulfilled			30-1
4		Flameaway			30-1
5		Audible			8-1
6		Good Magic			12-1
7		Justify			3-1
8		Lone Sailor			50-1
9		Hofburg			20-1
10		My Boy Jack			30-1
11		Bolt d’Oro			8-1
12		Enticed			30-1
13		Bravazo			50-1
14		Mendelssohn			5-1
15		Instilled Regard			50-1
16		Magnum Moon			6-1
17		Solomini			30-1
18		Vino Rosso			12-1
19		Noble Indy			30-1
20		Combatant			50-1

 

Post Positions:

The rail and the widest post are the least coveted by most when it comes to a 20-horse field. Historically, the innermost post slot has been successful, though with 20 going to the gate these days, it’s far from preferred.

Drawing widest of the 20 worked for Big Brown, though he was tons the best in 2008. Starting 20-wide and running well is no easy task.

So Firenze Fire (#1) and Combatant (#20), both of which were already longshots, have an even tougher assignment on Saturday.

Promises Fulfilled (#3), the expected pacesetter in the Kentucky Derby, draws near the rail and will have every chance to lead with a good exit from the gate.

Justify (#7), the morning-line choice, drew a nice spot with the two expected pace players drawn to his inside. That seems ideal for the Baffert pupil. 

Sticking with the unbeaten Justify…I would have concern being drawn inside of him. The Scat Daddy colt is such an imposing physical specimen, that if he breaks inward from the gate, it could have a crushing effect on those near him. Obviously, if Justify breaks to his right, the inner runners will benefit.

Magnum Moon (#16) and Vino Rosso (#18) are both parked pretty wide. But a clean and wide trip is better than a troubled one, despite the ground loss. Each of the pair has a measure of tactical speed to help offset the draw.

Mendelssohn (#14), who is swift, should be delighted. With Promises Fulfilled, Flameaway (#4) and Justify inside of him, the European invader should get an ideal voyage tracking that trio while avoiding trouble.

Odds:

I believe the morning-line odds were established to near perfection. It could not have been an easy task to set the line for this Kentucky Derby, so kudos to Mike Battaglia.

The only two that look a bit undervalued to me are Good Magic (12-1) and Flameaway (30-1), the top-two finishers from the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). I might be splitting hairs, but each of that pair can run with any horse in the field and looks appealing at their current prices.

Whomever you like for the 2018 Kentucky Derby, a good-to-generous price should be awaiting you.

Good Luck!