Opening day price plays at Saratoga

Saratoga opens Thursday with a 10-race program and I’ve tabbed three candidates to outperform their double-digit morning line odds. Race 4 – Bemma’s Boy (12-1 morning line) Mike Maker has morning line favorite Local Hero among 10 entered for turf but his other runner, #8 Bemma’s Boy, intrigues me. After breaking his maiden last October, the four-year-old gelded son of Into Mischief switched to turf and captured an allowance race at Remington Park. Previous connections tried unsuccessfully to get Bemma’s Boy back on turf this year, with three of his last five starts being washed off and moved to the main track, and Thursday marks only the second turf attempt for the dark bay. Bemma’s Boy offered a solid rally at Churchill Downs two starts back and was claimed from his last start. Maker excels moving these type of claims forward on turf and it’s interesting to note he secured Jose Ortiz for Bemma’s Boy (Luis Saez will ride Local Hero); the Ortiz brothers rode all four of Maker’s Saratoga winners last year, including a pair with Jose. Bemma’s Boy possesses tactical speed and is eligible to sit a good trip behind the early leaders before offering his best. Race 9 – Mount Travers (12-1 m/l) The $100,000 Quick Call came up tough, with 10 three-year-old sprinters entered for 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, and Call Paul looms as the early 5-2 favorite. Winner of last year’s Saratoga Special (G2) and the Swale (G3) earlier this season, the four-time stakes victor enters in good form for Jason Servis but has never raced on turf. He also does his best running on the front end and faces a speed-laden cast of challengers. #5 Mount Travers will look to capitalize upon a projected hot/contested pace with a stalk-and-pounce trip. Turf sprints are Linda Rice’s forte (she’s won more than twice as many Saratoga turf sprints as any other trainer) and Mount Travers posted a solid third over a yielding course when trying turf in the six-furlong Bridgetown at Aqueduct two back. The Speightstown colt cuts back in distance off a useful main track prep, second in the Parx Spring Derby at a mile and 70 yards, and it’s no surprise to see a 51-day freshening; Rice wins at a 22% clip with 46-90 days rest (344-race sample). Mount Travers still has upside in my estimation and the price should be right. Race 10 – Lady Trish’s Dream (15-1 m/l) Over the last 18 days, Kenny McPeek has won four races with horses dropping in class. He’s among the best in the business at it and extremely effective trying a maiden claimer for the first time, recording a 20% strike rate and positive ROI from a 79-horse sample size. #11 Lady Trish’s Dream takes the ultimate class drop in Thursday’s finale and I’ll make a case for the potential bomber. Out of the multiple stakes-winning dam Selinka, Lady’s Trish’s Dream didn’t like the slop when making her career debut last year in off-the-turf race. The sophomore filly came back from a seven-month layoff in a salty maiden special weight race on the Kentucky Oaks undercard and completely missed the break, trailing by nearly 20 lengths after the opening quarter-mile. The pace was dawdling but Lady Trish’s Dream offered a fine rally over the final three-eighths of a mile to make up 10+ lengths and pass seven rivals for fifth, generating a respectable 93 BRIS Late Pace rating. Throw out the last race on a yielding course – Lady Trish’s Dream needs it firm – and expect a better start. She’s struggled to break promptly but given the inexperience, it’s an issue McPeek can correct. Lady Trish’s Dream will make the third start off the layoff against a less-than-imposing group and an ample amount of pace appears entered. The inner turf played fairly to horses breaking from outside posts last year and Lady Trish’s Dream should be able to save ground with her late-running style; don’t be surprised to see her finish fastest of all beneath Julien Leparoux.