Pegasus World Cup scouting report: Toast of New York

“He has the potential to be one of the highest-earning horses in the world.”

So declared trainer Jamie Osborne in the Racing Post – three years ago, on the heels of Toast of New York’s near-miss in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita.

Now that he had proven himself at the top level on dirt, the 2015 Dubai World Cup (G1) beckoned for a globetrotter who’d already won the UAE Derby (G2) on Meydan’s old synthetic surface. Then another Breeders’ Cup tilt down the line…so many rich prizes there for a horse of his profile.

Unfortunately, a tendon injury ended those hopes and eventually sent him off to stud. But maybe it was a dream deferred. As far-fetched as it once appeared, Toast of New York has now come back in a position to pad his bankroll in Saturday’s $16 million Pegasus World Cup (G1).  

Yet “Toast” has a history of springing surprises. For starters, he’s exceeded any reasonable expectations from his basic pedigree. Sire Thewayyouare is royally bred, as a Kingmambo half to Peeping Fawn from Rags to Riches’ family, but he hasn’t set the world alight at stud. It’s a similar story with Toast’s maternal line. He was produced by the unplaced Claire Soleil, a daughter of the obscure Syncline (himself a well-related son of Danzig) and multiple Grade 1 star Claire Marine, the only major performer under his first four dams.

The Kentucky-bred was purchased as a newly-turned (i.e., “short”) yearling at Keeneland January for $35,000 by Tim Hyde of Ireland’s Camas Park Stud, whose numerous success stories include sales grad Highland Reel and Nyquist. Offered that fall at Goffs Orby, Toast was led out unsold when bidding maxed out at €60,000.

That’s where Osborne, impressed with his walk, bought him privately. But in other respects, the yearling wasn’t exactly a head-turner.

“Here was this big, raw animal, bit of a plain head, four white legs, with a pedigree nobody could understand,” Osborne recently told Chris McGrath in a Thoroughbred Daily News feature.

Described as a “National Hunt” type, Osborne’s new recruit kept growing and took time to get into serious work. In fact, he couldn’t sell him to any of his clients, until Michael Buckley stepped up to the plate. Once Toast began to come around as a juvenile in 2013, he made his debut on the Leicester turf and wound up a non-threatening fifth.

Toast wheeled back on the Polytrack at Kempton, and the surface switch put him in a much better light. He arguably should have won that maiden, but hung left across track and got outfinished by Ryan Moore aboard the odds-on Top Tug (click link for replay). According to Racing Post, the bit came through Toast’s mouth, perhaps explaining jockey Jamie Spencer’s rather tender handling.

A more professional Toast popped up at Wolverhampton. Going straight to the front as the odds-on favorite, he left them for dead turning for home, ran up the score to 12 lengths, and never got out of second gear.

Osborne was already plotting the course to Dubai for his rapidly progressive colt. There was one wrinkle, however: his official rating wasn’t yet high enough to secure an invitation to the UAE Derby. Thus given the level of competition on the British all-weather, Toast had to win by a gaudy margin again in his follow-up to boost his mark. The usual practice is to be conservative and protect your rating with an eye toward getting favorable handicap weights. But Toast had far loftier ambitions than mere handicaps, and so he went out and trounced a Wolverhampton novice by 16 lengths. Mission accomplished.

Making his sophomore debut in the 2014 UAE Derby, Toast was overlooked at 11-1 in a field including Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) runner-up Giovanni Boldini and Godolphin’s Caulfield Guineas (G1) and UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) hero Long John. He proved the market all wrong with an emphatic stalk-and-pounce victory.

Osborne decided that trying the Kentucky Derby (G1) was a bridge too far. He added Toast to the Derby (G1) at Epsom at a later entry stage, just in case, but didn’t exercise that option either.

Toast wasn’t seen again until the summer, when he shipped for the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1). After launching a brief rally, he flattened out in sixth. That, and his debut, were the only times he’s been out of the top two in his limited career, and both came on turf. To be fair, Toast had an excuse, for he came out of the race with an illness. But I’d argue that his style is a more natural fit for the main track too.